Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 16, 2018
Argentina 1–1 Iceland: who deserved to win?
Argentina and Iceland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Argentina win 6 of 10, Iceland 2, and 2 end level. Argentina made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 1 | 2.08 |
 Iceland | 1 | 1.03 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −24 Argentina about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Argentina win 6, 2 end level, Iceland win 2.
- 1 ARG 3 ISL 2
- 2 ARG 1 ISL 0
- 3 ARG 3 ISL 2
- 4 ARG 2 ISL 0
- 5 ARG 6 ISL 3
- 6 ARG 4 ISL 0
- 7 ARG 1 ISL 1
- 8 ARG 0 ISL 0
- 9 ARG 0 ISL 1
- 10 ARG 2 ISL 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Argentina win 64%, 20% end level, Iceland win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Argentina by 3+ | 20.0% |
| Argentina by 2 | 20.4% |
| Argentina by 1 | 24.0% |
| Draw | 19.5% |
| Iceland by 1 | 10.7% |
| Iceland by 2 | 4.0% |
| Iceland by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 28 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.08 | −1.08 |
 Iceland | 9 | 1 | 1.03 | −0.03 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Birkir Bjarnason didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 18' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 22' | Alfreð Finnbogason scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 63' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Nicolás Hernán Otamendi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% ISL |
| 2 | 8' | Birkir Bjarnason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% ARG |
| 3 | 18' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +24% ARG |
| 4 | 22' | Alfreð Finnbogason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% ARG |
| 5 | 22' | Alfreð Finnbogason scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +19% ISL |
| 6 | 41' | Lucas Rodrigo Biglia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ISL |
| 7 | 47' | Nicolás Hernán Otamendi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% ISL |
| 8 | 63' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +28% ISL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Argentina 64% · draw 21% · Iceland 14%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Iceland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Argentina by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Argentina 64% · draw 20% · Iceland 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 1 matches, 2018 · Argentina · Iceland
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