Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 17, 2018
Germany 0–1 Mexico: who deserved to win?
Mexico beat Germany 1–0, but the replays lean toward Germany: 6 wins in 10 to Mexico’s 2, 2 end level. Germany made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Mexico very lucky · −69 Germany
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 6, 2 end level, Mexico win 2.
- 1 GER 5 MEX 4
- 2 GER 1 MEX 0
- 3 GER 3 MEX 1
- 4 GER 3 MEX 1
- 5 GER 4 MEX 1
- 6 GER 4 MEX 0
- 7 GER 1 MEX 1
- 8 GER 1 MEX 1
- 9 GER 0 MEX 2
- 10 GER 1 MEX 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 58%, 21% end level, Mexico win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Mexico by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 17.1% |
| Germany by 2 | 17.7% |
| Germany by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Mexico by 1 | 12.5% |
| Mexico by 2 | 5.6% |
| Mexico by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 26 | 0 | 2.30 | −2.30 |
 Mexico | 12 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Hirving Rodrigo Lozano Bahena scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 67' | Timo Werner didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 88' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Timo Werner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% MEX |
| 2 | 34' | Hirving Rodrigo Lozano Bahena scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +23% MEX |
| 3 | 64' | Joshua Kimmich didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% MEX |
| 4 | 67' | Timo Werner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +11% MEX |
| 5 | 76' | Julian Draxler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% MEX |
| 6 | 85' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% MEX |
| 7 | 86' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +12% MEX |
| 8 | 88' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +27% MEX |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Germany 67% · draw 19% · Mexico 14%
- Final margin
- Mexico by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Mexico
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Germany 58% · draw 21% · Mexico 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Mexico win 31% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium