Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 18, 2018
Belgium 3–0 Panama: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Panama 3–0, and the replays lean Belgium’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Panama, 2 end level. Belgium made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Belgium lucky · −26 Panama
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 6, 2 end level, Panama win 2.
- 1 BEL 1 PAN 0
- 2 BEL 1 PAN 0
- 3 BEL 2 PAN 0
- 4 BEL 2 PAN 0
- 5 BEL 4 PAN 1
- 6 BEL 4 PAN 0
- 7 BEL 1 PAN 1
- 8 BEL 0 PAN 0
- 9 BEL 1 PAN 2
- 10 BEL 0 PAN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 61%, 25% end level, Panama win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 14.6% |
| Belgium by 2 | 18.8% |
| Belgium by 1 | 27.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% |
| Panama by 1 | 10.6% |
| Panama by 2 | 2.7% |
| Panama by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 15 | 3 | 1.21 | +1.79 |
 Panama | 7 | 0 | 0.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Dries Mertens scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 53' | Michael Amir Murillo Bermudez didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 68' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 74' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% PAN |
| 2 | 37' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% PAN |
| 3 | 38' | Román Aureliano Torres Morcillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BEL |
| 4 | 46' | Dries Mertens scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +31% BEL |
| 5 | 53' | Michael Amir Murillo Bermudez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +11% BEL |
| 6 | 54' | Román Aureliano Torres Morcillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BEL |
| 7 | 57' | Edgar Yoel Bárcenas Herrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BEL |
| 8 | 68' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +7% BEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Belgium 82% · draw 14% · Panama 3%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Belgium 61% · draw 25% · Panama 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden