Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 15, 2018
Egypt 0–1 Uruguay: who deserved to win?
Uruguay beat Egypt 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Uruguay win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Uruguay made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Uruguay about even · −16 Egypt
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Egypt win 1, 2 end level, Uruguay win 7.
- 1 EGY 1 URU 0
- 2 EGY 1 URU 1
- 3 EGY 1 URU 1
- 4 EGY 0 URU 4
- 5 EGY 1 URU 4
- 6 EGY 0 URU 2
- 7 EGY 0 URU 2
- 8 EGY 1 URU 3
- 9 EGY 0 URU 1
- 10 EGY 0 URU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Egypt win 7%, 19% end level, Uruguay win 74%. The line is what actually happened: Uruguay by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Egypt by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Egypt by 2 | 1.1% |
| Egypt by 1 | 5.5% |
| Draw | 19.0% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 25.9% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 23.1% |
| Uruguay by 3+ | 25.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Egypt | 8 | 0 | 0.36 | −0.36 |
 Uruguay | 16 | 1 | 1.94 | −0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 87' | José Martín Cáceres Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 88' | José María Giménez de Vargas scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Egypt’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +14% EGY |
| 2 | 45' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% EGY |
| 3 | 69' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EGY |
| 4 | 80' | Mohamed Naser Elsayed Elneny didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% URU |
| 5 | 82' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% EGY |
| 6 | 84' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% EGY |
| 7 | 87' | José Martín Cáceres Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +27% EGY |
| 8 | 88' | José María Giménez de Vargas scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +45% URU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Egypt 4% · draw 15% · Uruguay 81%
- Final margin
- Uruguay by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Egypt
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Uruguay by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Egypt 7% · draw 19% · Uruguay 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Uruguay win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium