Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 17, 2018
Brazil 1–1 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Brazil and Switzerland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Brazil win 7 of 10, Switzerland 1, and 2 end level. Brazil made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 1 | 1.87 |
 Switzerland | 1 | 0.47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −32 Brazil unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Brazil win 7, 2 end level, Switzerland win 1.
- 1 BRA 1 SUI 0
- 2 BRA 1 SUI 0
- 3 BRA 1 SUI 0
- 4 BRA 3 SUI 1
- 5 BRA 2 SUI 0
- 6 BRA 3 SUI 0
- 7 BRA 4 SUI 0
- 8 BRA 0 SUI 0
- 9 BRA 1 SUI 1
- 10 BRA 0 SUI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Brazil win 73%, 19% end level, Switzerland win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Brazil by 3+ | 23.6% |
| Brazil by 2 | 23.0% |
| Brazil by 1 | 26.2% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 6.5% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 1.1% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 21 | 1 | 1.87 | −0.87 |
 Switzerland | 7 | 1 | 0.47 | +0.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | José Paulo Bezzera Maciel Júnior didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 19' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 49' | Steven Zuber scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Brazil’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | José Paulo Bezzera Maciel Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +13% SUI |
| 2 | 19' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +26% BRA |
| 3 | 49' | Steven Zuber scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +26% SUI |
| 4 | 58' | Thiago Emiliano da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SUI |
| 5 | 69' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SUI |
| 6 | 87' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% SUI |
| 7 | 89' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% SUI |
| 8 | 95' | Renato Soares de Oliveira Augusto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% SUI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Brazil 75% · draw 18% · Switzerland 8%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Switzerland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Brazil by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Brazil 73% · draw 19% · Switzerland 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2018
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- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium