Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 16, 2018
France 2–1 Australia: who deserved to win?
France beat Australia 2–1, and the replays lean France’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Australia, 3 end level. France made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.0. An own goal helped France.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 France lucky · −31 Australia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. France win 6, 3 end level, Australia win 1.
- 1 FRA 1 AUS 0
- 2 FRA 2 AUS 1
- 3 FRA 2 AUS 1
- 4 FRA 2 AUS 0
- 5 FRA 2 AUS 0
- 6 FRA 3 AUS 0
- 7 FRA 1 AUS 1
- 8 FRA 1 AUS 1
- 9 FRA 2 AUS 2
- 10 FRA 0 AUS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 56%, 25% end level, Australia win 18%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 14.0% |
| France by 2 | 17.6% |
| France by 1 | 24.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Australia by 1 | 12.1% |
| Australia by 2 | 4.7% |
| Australia by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 12 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
 Australia | 5 (1 pen) | 1 | 0.98 | +0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 57' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 61' | Mile Jedinak scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +8% AUS |
| 2 | 11' | Mathew Leckie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% FRA |
| 3 | 16' | Mathew Leckie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% FRA |
| 4 | 32' | Lucas Hernández Pi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AUS |
| 5 | 57' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% FRA |
| 6 | 61' | Mile Jedinak scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% AUS |
| 7 | 79' | Own goal by nan, for FranceOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +42% FRA |
| 8 | 93' | Josh Risdon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% FRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
France 52% · draw 32% · Australia 15%
- Final margin
- France by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for France
- Luck-adjusted margin
- France by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- France 56% · draw 25% · Australia 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium