Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 19, 2018
Russia 3–1 Egypt: who deserved to win?
Russia beat Egypt 3–1, but the replays call it even: Russia win 4 of 10, Egypt 3, 3 end level. Egypt made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.0. An own goal helped Russia.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Russia | 3 | 0.98 |
 Egypt | 1 | 1.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Russia lucky · −52 Egypt
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Russia win 4, 3 end level, Egypt win 3.
- 1 RUS 3 EGY 2
- 2 RUS 1 EGY 0
- 3 RUS 3 EGY 1
- 4 RUS 3 EGY 0
- 5 RUS 2 EGY 2
- 6 RUS 1 EGY 1
- 7 RUS 1 EGY 1
- 8 RUS 0 EGY 3
- 9 RUS 1 EGY 2
- 10 RUS 0 EGY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Russia win 35%, 26% end level, Egypt win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Russia by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Russia by 3+ | 5.3% |
| Russia by 2 | 9.8% |
| Russia by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Egypt by 1 | 20.3% |
| Egypt by 2 | 11.8% |
| Egypt by 3+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russia | 12 | 2 | 0.98 | +1.02 |
 Egypt | 15 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.70 | −0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 58' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 61' | Artem Dzyuba scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 72' | Mohamed Salah scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Russia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Sergei Ignashevich didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EGY |
| 2 | 14' | Marwan Mohsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RUS |
| 3 | 34' | Marwan Mohsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RUS |
| 4 | 38' | Marwan Mohsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% RUS |
| 5 | 40' | Artem Dzyuba didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% EGY |
| 6 | 46' | Own goal by nan, for RussiaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +30% RUS |
| 7 | 55' | Mohamed Salah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% RUS |
| 8 | 58' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +11% RUS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Russia 19% · draw 25% · Egypt 56%
- Final margin
- Russia by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Russia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Egypt by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Russia 35% · draw 26% · Egypt 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Russia win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2018 · Russia · Egypt
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium