Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 20, 2018
Iran 0–1 Spain: who deserved to win?
Spain beat Iran 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Spain made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Spain about even · −11 Iran
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iran win 0, 1 ends level, Spain win 9.
- 1 IRN 1 ESP 1
- 2 IRN 0 ESP 5
- 3 IRN 0 ESP 4
- 4 IRN 1 ESP 4
- 5 IRN 0 ESP 3
- 6 IRN 0 ESP 2
- 7 IRN 1 ESP 3
- 8 IRN 0 ESP 1
- 9 IRN 0 ESP 1
- 10 IRN 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Iran win 5%, 13% end level, Spain win 82%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iran by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Iran by 2 | 0.7% |
| Iran by 1 | 3.9% |
| Draw | 13.2% |
| Spain by 1 | 22.9% |
| Spain by 2 | 23.2% |
| Spain by 3+ | 36.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran | 6 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
 Spain | 18 | 1 | 2.20 | −1.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 53' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 69' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shot | 0.69 |
When it happened
Iran’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% IRN |
| 2 | 41' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% IRN |
| 3 | 48' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% IRN |
| 4 | 50' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% IRN |
| 5 | 53' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +24% ESP |
| 6 | 69' | Sergio Ramos García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chanceGerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +8% IRN |
| 7 | 81' | Mehdi Taremi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% ESP |
| 8 | 90' | Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iran 4% · draw 14% · Spain 82%
- Final margin
- Spain by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Iran
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Iran 5% · draw 13% · Spain 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium