Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 21, 2018
Argentina 0–3 Croatia: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat Argentina 3–0, and the replays lean Croatia’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Argentina, 2 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Croatia lucky · −27 Argentina
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Argentina win 2, 2 end level, Croatia win 6.
- 1 ARG 1 CRO 0
- 2 ARG 5 CRO 3
- 3 ARG 1 CRO 1
- 4 ARG 1 CRO 1
- 5 ARG 1 CRO 5
- 6 ARG 0 CRO 3
- 7 ARG 2 CRO 4
- 8 ARG 1 CRO 3
- 9 ARG 1 CRO 2
- 10 ARG 1 CRO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Argentina win 17%, 19% end level, Croatia win 64%. The line is what actually happened: Croatia by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Argentina by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Argentina by 2 | 4.7% |
| Argentina by 1 | 10.5% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Croatia by 1 | 22.4% |
| Croatia by 2 | 19.6% |
| Croatia by 3+ | 21.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 10 | 0 | 1.22 | −1.22 |
 Croatia | 14 | 3 | 1.83 | +1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Enzo Nicolás Pérez didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 52' | Ante Rebić scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 79' | Luka Modrić scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 90' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | Enzo Nicolás Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +9% CRO |
| 2 | 32' | Mario Mandžukić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% ARG |
| 3 | 46' | Ante Rebić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ARG |
| 4 | 52' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% CRO |
| 5 | 52' | Ante Rebić scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +20% CRO |
| 6 | 63' | Maximiliano Eduardo Meza didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% CRO |
| 7 | 63' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +9% CRO |
| 8 | 79' | Luka Modrić scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +6% CRO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Argentina 9% · draw 15% · Croatia 76%
- Final margin
- Croatia by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Croatia by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Argentina 17% · draw 19% · Croatia 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Croatia win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium