Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 21, 2018
France 1–0 Peru: who deserved to win?
France beat Peru 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, France win 7 of 10, 2 end level. France made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 France | 1 | 1.86 |
 Peru | 0 | 0.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 France about even · −21 Peru
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. France win 7, 2 end level, Peru win 1.
- 1 FRA 1 PER 0
- 2 FRA 2 PER 1
- 3 FRA 1 PER 0
- 4 FRA 2 PER 0
- 5 FRA 2 PER 0
- 6 FRA 3 PER 0
- 7 FRA 4 PER 0
- 8 FRA 1 PER 1
- 9 FRA 0 PER 0
- 10 FRA 0 PER 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 70%, 19% end level, Peru win 11%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 21.7% |
| France by 2 | 21.5% |
| France by 1 | 26.6% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Peru by 1 | 8.0% |
| Peru by 2 | 2.4% |
| Peru by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 12 | 1 | 1.86 | −0.86 |
 Peru | 12 | 0 | 0.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.93 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% PER |
| 2 | 30' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% FRA |
| 3 | 32' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% PER |
| 4 | 33' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% PER |
| 5 | 33' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 93% chance | +2% FRA |
| 6 | 66' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% FRA |
| 7 | 73' | Jefferson Agustín Farfán Guadalupe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% FRA |
| 8 | 92' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% FRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
France 74% · draw 19% · Peru 7%
- Final margin
- France by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Peru
- Luck-adjusted margin
- France by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- France 70% · draw 19% · Peru 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2018 · France · Peru
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium