Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 20, 2018
Portugal 1–0 Morocco: who deserved to win?
Portugal beat Morocco 1–0, but the replays call it even: Portugal win 3 of 10, Morocco 4, 3 end level. Morocco made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Portugal lucky · −53 Morocco
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portugal win 3, 3 end level, Morocco win 4.
- 1 POR 1 MAR 0
- 2 POR 1 MAR 0
- 3 POR 2 MAR 0
- 4 POR 2 MAR 2
- 5 POR 0 MAR 0
- 6 POR 0 MAR 0
- 7 POR 0 MAR 3
- 8 POR 0 MAR 2
- 9 POR 1 MAR 2
- 10 POR 3 MAR 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Portugal win 33%, 28% end level, Morocco win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Portugal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portugal by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Portugal by 2 | 8.6% |
| Portugal by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Morocco by 1 | 21.5% |
| Morocco by 2 | 11.8% |
| Morocco by 3+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 12 | 1 | 0.89 | +0.11 |
 Morocco | 17 | 0 | 1.46 | −1.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Portugal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +19% POR |
| 2 | 29' | Khalid Boutaïb didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% POR |
| 3 | 46' | Younès Belhanda didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% POR |
| 4 | 56' | Younès Belhanda didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% POR |
| 5 | 59' | Medhi Amine El Mouttaqi Benatia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% POR |
| 6 | 77' | Medhi Amine El Mouttaqi Benatia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% POR |
| 7 | 89' | Hakim Ziyech didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% POR |
| 8 | 92' | Medhi Amine El Mouttaqi Benatia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portugal 24% · draw 26% · Morocco 50%
- Final margin
- Portugal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Portugal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Morocco by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Portugal 33% · draw 28% · Morocco 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Portugal win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium