Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 22, 2018
Nigeria 2–0 Iceland: who deserved to win?
Nigeria beat Iceland 2–0, and the replays lean Nigeria’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Iceland, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Nigeria | 2 | 1.31 |
 Iceland | 0 | 1.55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Nigeria lucky · −41 Iceland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nigeria win 5, 2 end level, Iceland win 3.
- 1 NGA 1 ISL 0
- 2 NGA 2 ISL 1
- 3 NGA 2 ISL 1
- 4 NGA 3 ISL 1
- 5 NGA 5 ISL 1
- 6 NGA 1 ISL 1
- 7 NGA 1 ISL 1
- 8 NGA 0 ISL 2
- 9 NGA 0 ISL 1
- 10 NGA 0 ISL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Nigeria win 47%, 25% end level, Iceland win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Nigeria by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nigeria by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Nigeria by 2 | 13.6% |
| Nigeria by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Iceland by 1 | 16.8% |
| Iceland by 2 | 8.2% |
| Iceland by 3+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nigeria | 17 | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 |
 Iceland | 10 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.55 | −1.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Ahmed Musa scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 74' | Ahmed Musa scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 82' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Nigeria’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% NGA |
| 2 | 20' | Birkir Bjarnason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% NGA |
| 3 | 44' | Alfreð Finnbogason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% NGA |
| 4 | 46' | Jón Daði Böðvarsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% NGA |
| 5 | 48' | Ahmed Musa scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +27% NGA |
| 6 | 67' | Rúrik Gíslason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% NGA |
| 7 | 74' | Ahmed Musa scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +4% NGA |
| 8 | 82' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% NGA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nigeria 56% · draw 25% · Iceland 19%
- Final margin
- Nigeria by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Nigeria
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nigeria by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Nigeria 47% · draw 25% · Iceland 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Nigeria win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2018 · Nigeria · Iceland
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium