Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 21, 2018
Denmark 1–1 Australia: who deserved to win?
Denmark and Australia drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Denmark win 3 of 10, Australia 4, and 3 end level. Australia made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Denmark about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Denmark win 3, 3 end level, Australia win 4.
- 1 DEN 2 AUS 1
- 2 DEN 2 AUS 1
- 3 DEN 2 AUS 0
- 4 DEN 1 AUS 1
- 5 DEN 2 AUS 2
- 6 DEN 2 AUS 2
- 7 DEN 1 AUS 4
- 8 DEN 0 AUS 2
- 9 DEN 0 AUS 1
- 10 DEN 0 AUS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Denmark win 33%, 28% end level, Australia win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Denmark by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Denmark by 2 | 9.3% |
| Denmark by 1 | 19.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Australia by 1 | 22.2% |
| Australia by 2 | 10.6% |
| Australia by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denmark | 10 | 1 | 1.01 | −0.01 |
 Australia | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 37' | Mile Jedinak scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Denmark’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Thomas Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% AUS |
| 2 | 4' | Mathew Leckie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% DEN |
| 3 | 6' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +21% DEN |
| 4 | 23' | Nicolai Jørgensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% AUS |
| 5 | 37' | Mile Jedinak scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% AUS |
| 6 | 78' | Mathew Leckie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% DEN |
| 7 | 82' | Andreas Evald Cornelius didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% AUS |
| 8 | 87' | Mathew Leckie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% DEN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Denmark 23% · draw 29% · Australia 48%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Denmark
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Australia by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Denmark 33% · draw 28% · Australia 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium