luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 23, 2018

Belgium 5–2 Tunisia: who deserved to win?

Belgium beat Tunisia 5–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Belgium win 10 of 10. Belgium made the better chances: 5.3 expected goals to 1.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
Belgium 5 5.34
Tunisia 2 1.19

June 23, 2018 · Otkritie Bank Arena · Referee: Jair Marrufo

Luck index +1 Belgium about even · −1 Tunisia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Belgium win 10, 0 end level, Tunisia win 0.

  1. 1 BEL 3 TUN 1
  2. 2 BEL 3 TUN 0
  3. 3 BEL 4 TUN 0
  4. 4 BEL 7 TUN 2
  5. 5 BEL 7 TUN 1
  6. 6 BEL 6 TUN 0
  7. 7 BEL 8 TUN 1
  8. 8 BEL 8 TUN 0
  9. 9 BEL 9 TUN 0
  10. 10 BEL 14 TUN 3

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Belgium win 99%, 1% end level, Tunisia win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 3.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Belgium by 3+92.2%
Belgium by 24.3%
Belgium by 12.4%
Draw0.9%
Tunisia by 10.2%
Tunisia by 20.1%
Tunisia by 3+0.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Belgium23 (1 pen)55.34−0.34
Tunisia1721.19+0.81

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
6'Eden Hazard scored from a penalty0.78
15'Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot0.14
17'Dylan Daniel Mahmoud Bronn scored from a shot0.16
47'Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot0.39
50'Eden Hazard scored from a shot0.98
75'Michy Batshuayi Tunga didn’t score from a shot0.47
79'Michy Batshuayi Tunga didn’t score from a shot0.61
89'Michy Batshuayi Tunga scored from a shot0.47
91'Michy Batshuayi Tunga didn’t score from a shot0.33
92'Wahbi Khazri scored from a shot0.28

When it happened

Belgium’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Belgium was ahead in it, below while Tunisia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 6' Eden Hazard scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +5% BEL
2 12' Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance +4% TUN
3 15' Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +13% BEL
4 17' Dylan Daniel Mahmoud Bronn scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +13% TUN
5 18' Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +1% TUN
6 30' Ferjani Sassi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% BEL
7 47' Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance +8% BEL
8 49' Wahbi Khazri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +3% BEL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Belgium 100% · draw 0% · Tunisia 0%

Final margin
Belgium by 3
Luck in goals
0.9 for Tunisia
Luck-adjusted margin
Belgium by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Belgium 99% · draw 1% · Tunisia 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 2 matches, 2018 · Belgium · Tunisia

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