Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 22, 2018
Serbia 1–2 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Switzerland beat Serbia 2–1, but the replays call it even: Switzerland win 5 of 10, Serbia 3, 2 end level. Switzerland made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Serbia | 1 | 1.15 |
 Switzerland | 2 | 1.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Switzerland lucky · −46 Serbia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Serbia win 3, 2 end level, Switzerland win 5.
- 1 SRB 1 SUI 0
- 2 SRB 2 SUI 1
- 3 SRB 4 SUI 2
- 4 SRB 3 SUI 3
- 5 SRB 2 SUI 2
- 6 SRB 0 SUI 3
- 7 SRB 1 SUI 3
- 8 SRB 1 SUI 2
- 9 SRB 2 SUI 3
- 10 SRB 0 SUI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Serbia win 34%, 24% end level, Switzerland win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Switzerland by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Serbia by 3+ | 4.9% |
| Serbia by 2 | 9.1% |
| Serbia by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 23.0% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 11.3% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 7.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Serbia | 12 | 1 | 1.15 | −0.15 |
 Switzerland | 19 | 2 | 1.56 | +0.44 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 51' | Granit Xhaka scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 89' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Serbia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% SUI |
| 2 | 4' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +17% SRB |
| 3 | 9' | Blerim Džemaili didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% SRB |
| 4 | 29' | Blerim Džemaili didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% SRB |
| 5 | 51' | The game turned hereGranit Xhaka scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +32% SUI |
| 6 | 83' | Mario Gavranović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +10% SRB |
| 7 | 85' | Manuel Obafemi Akanji didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SRB |
| 8 | 89' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +31% SUI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Serbia 27% · draw 26% · Switzerland 48%
- Final margin
- Switzerland by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Switzerland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Switzerland by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Serbia 34% · draw 24% · Switzerland 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Switzerland win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium