Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 23, 2018
South Korea 1–2 Mexico: who deserved to win?
Mexico beat South Korea 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Mexico win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Mexico made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 1 | 0.82 |
 Mexico | 2 | 1.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Mexico about even · −21 South Korea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Korea win 1, 2 end level, Mexico win 7.
- 1 KOR 2 MEX 1
- 2 KOR 2 MEX 2
- 3 KOR 0 MEX 0
- 4 KOR 0 MEX 5
- 5 KOR 0 MEX 3
- 6 KOR 0 MEX 3
- 7 KOR 0 MEX 2
- 8 KOR 1 MEX 2
- 9 KOR 1 MEX 2
- 10 KOR 0 MEX 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
South Korea win 12%, 18% end level, Mexico win 69%. The line is what actually happened: Mexico by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Korea by 3+ | 0.9% |
| South Korea by 2 | 2.6% |
| South Korea by 1 | 8.7% |
| Draw | 18.4% |
| Mexico by 1 | 25.8% |
| Mexico by 2 | 20.2% |
| Mexico by 3+ | 23.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 17 | 1 | 0.82 | +0.18 |
 Mexico | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.88 | +0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 65' | Javier Hernández Balcázar scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 92' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
South Korea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% KOR |
| 2 | 21' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MEX |
| 3 | 21' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MEX |
| 4 | 25' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% MEX |
| 5 | 51' | Seon-Min Moon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% MEX |
| 6 | 59' | Hirving Rodrigo Lozano Bahena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% KOR |
| 7 | 60' | Jae-Sung Lee didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MEX |
| 8 | 65' | Javier Hernández Balcázar scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +8% MEX |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Korea 12% · draw 21% · Mexico 67%
- Final margin
- Mexico by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mexico by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- South Korea 12% · draw 18% · Mexico 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Mexico win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium