Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 20, 2018
Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia: who deserved to win?
Uruguay beat Saudi Arabia 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Uruguay win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Uruguay made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 1 | 1.81 |
 Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0.27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Uruguay about even · −12 Saudi Arabia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Uruguay win 8, 2 end level, Saudi Arabia win 0.
- 1 URU 1 KSA 0
- 2 URU 1 KSA 0
- 3 URU 1 KSA 0
- 4 URU 2 KSA 0
- 5 URU 2 KSA 0
- 6 URU 3 KSA 0
- 7 URU 3 KSA 0
- 8 URU 5 KSA 0
- 9 URU 2 KSA 2
- 10 URU 0 KSA 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Uruguay win 81%, 16% end level, Saudi Arabia win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Uruguay by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Uruguay by 3+ | 30.3% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 24.6% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 25.7% |
| Draw | 15.7% |
| Saudi Arabia by 1 | 3.2% |
| Saudi Arabia by 2 | 0.4% |
| Saudi Arabia by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 14 | 1 | 1.81 | −0.81 |
 Saudi Arabia | 8 | 0 | 0.27 | −0.27 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 85' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Uruguay’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% KSA |
| 2 | 22' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +16% URU |
| 3 | 24' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% KSA |
| 4 | 28' | Hattan Babhir didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% URU |
| 5 | 61' | Carlos Andrés Sánchez Arcosa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% KSA |
| 6 | 67' | José Martín Cáceres Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% KSA |
| 7 | 76' | José Martín Cáceres Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +1% KSA |
| 8 | 89' | Mohammed Kanoo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% URU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Uruguay 79% · draw 16% · Saudi Arabia 4%
- Final margin
- Uruguay by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Saudi Arabia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Uruguay by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Uruguay 81% · draw 16% · Saudi Arabia 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Uruguay win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium