Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 22, 2018
Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica: who deserved to win?
Brazil beat Costa Rica 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Brazil win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Brazil made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 2 | 3.10 |
 Costa Rica | 0 | 0.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Brazil about even · −4 Costa Rica
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Brazil win 9, 1 ends level, Costa Rica win 0.
- 1 BRA 1 CRC 0
- 2 BRA 2 CRC 0
- 3 BRA 2 CRC 0
- 4 BRA 4 CRC 1
- 5 BRA 3 CRC 0
- 6 BRA 4 CRC 0
- 7 BRA 4 CRC 0
- 8 BRA 5 CRC 0
- 9 BRA 6 CRC 0
- 10 BRA 0 CRC 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Brazil win 94%, 5% end level, Costa Rica win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Brazil by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Brazil by 3+ | 62.2% |
| Brazil by 2 | 18.5% |
| Brazil by 1 | 12.8% |
| Draw | 5.4% |
| Costa Rica by 1 | 0.9% |
| Costa Rica by 2 | 0.1% |
| Costa Rica by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 23 | 2 | 3.10 | −1.10 |
 Costa Rica | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 90' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 96' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.84 |
When it happened
Brazil’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +16% CRC |
| 2 | 48' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% CRC |
| 3 | 55' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% CRC |
| 4 | 60' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CRC |
| 5 | 68' | Thiago Emiliano da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CRC |
| 6 | 69' | Carlos Henrique Casimiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CRC |
| 7 | 71' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% CRC |
| 8 | 90' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +29% BRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Brazil 99% · draw 1% · Costa Rica 0%
- Final margin
- Brazil by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Costa Rica
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Brazil by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Brazil 94% · draw 5% · Costa Rica 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Brazil win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium