Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 23, 2018
Germany 2–1 Sweden: who deserved to win?
Germany beat Sweden 2–1, and the replays lean Germany’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Sweden, 3 end level. Germany made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Germany lucky · −40 Sweden
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 5, 3 end level, Sweden win 2.
- 1 GER 1 SWE 0
- 2 GER 2 SWE 1
- 3 GER 1 SWE 0
- 4 GER 3 SWE 1
- 5 GER 3 SWE 0
- 6 GER 1 SWE 1
- 7 GER 1 SWE 1
- 8 GER 0 SWE 0
- 9 GER 0 SWE 2
- 10 GER 0 SWE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 46%, 28% end level, Sweden win 26%. The line is what actually happened: Germany by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 8.1% |
| Germany by 2 | 13.4% |
| Germany by 1 | 24.8% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Sweden by 1 | 17.3% |
| Sweden by 2 | 6.3% |
| Sweden by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 18 | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
 Sweden | 7 | 1 | 0.82 | +0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 31' | Ola Toivonen scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 47' | Marco Reus scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 94' | Toni Kroos scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Julian Draxler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +6% SWE |
| 2 | 11' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% GER |
| 3 | 31' | Ola Toivonen scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +25% SWE |
| 4 | 47' | The game turned hereMarco Reus scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +26% GER |
| 5 | 80' | Timo Werner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% SWE |
| 6 | 82' | Andreas Granqvist didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% GER |
| 7 | 87' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% SWE |
| 8 | 94' | Toni Kroos scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +49% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Germany 49% · draw 28% · Sweden 23%
- Final margin
- Germany by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Germany
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Germany 46% · draw 28% · Sweden 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Germany win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Belgium 5–2 Tunisia Jun 23, 2018 · replay 99% for Belgium