Matchday 2 · World Cup 2018 · June 24, 2018
Poland 0–3 Colombia: who deserved to win?
Colombia beat Poland 3–0, and the replays lean Colombia’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Poland, 2 end level. Colombia made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Colombia lucky · −32 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Poland win 2, 2 end level, Colombia win 6.
- 1 POL 2 COL 1
- 2 POL 2 COL 0
- 3 POL 0 COL 0
- 4 POL 1 COL 1
- 5 POL 0 COL 3
- 6 POL 1 COL 3
- 7 POL 1 COL 3
- 8 POL 0 COL 1
- 9 POL 0 COL 1
- 10 POL 1 COL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Poland win 20%, 23% end level, Colombia win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Colombia by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Poland by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Poland by 2 | 5.0% |
| Poland by 1 | 13.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Colombia by 1 | 25.6% |
| Colombia by 2 | 17.4% |
| Colombia by 3+ | 13.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | 11 | 0 | 1.11 | −1.11 |
 Colombia | 13 | 3 | 1.39 | +1.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Yerry Fernando Mina González scored from a shot | 0.54 |
| 69' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 74' | Juan Guillermo Cuadrado Bello scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Poland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +6% COL |
| 2 | 39' | Yerry Fernando Mina González scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +13% COL |
| 3 | 46' | Bartosz Bereszyński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% COL |
| 4 | 48' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% COL |
| 5 | 55' | Juan Fernando Quintero Paniagua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% POL |
| 6 | 57' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% COL |
| 7 | 65' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% COL |
| 8 | 69' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +7% COL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Poland 10% · draw 18% · Colombia 72%
- Final margin
- Colombia by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Colombia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colombia by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Poland 20% · draw 23% · Colombia 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Colombia win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2018
- Russia 3–1 Egypt Jun 19, 2018 · replay 48% for Russia
- Iran 0–1 Spain Jun 20, 2018 · replay 89% for Spain
- Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 20, 2018 · replay 88% for Uruguay
- Portugal 1–0 Morocco Jun 20, 2018 · replay 47% for Portugal
- France 1–0 Peru Jun 21, 2018 · replay 79% for France
- Argentina 0–3 Croatia Jun 21, 2018 · replay 73% for Croatia
- Denmark 1–1 Australia Jun 21, 2018 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Serbia 1–2 Switzerland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 54% for Switzerland
- Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica Jun 22, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Nigeria 2–0 Iceland Jun 22, 2018 · replay 59% for Nigeria
- South Korea 1–2 Mexico Jun 23, 2018 · replay 79% for Mexico
- Germany 2–1 Sweden Jun 23, 2018 · replay 60% for Germany