luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 28, 2018

Japan 0–1 Poland: who deserved to win?

Poland beat Japan 1–0, and the replays lean Poland’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Japan, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 1.0).

Full time

GoalsxG
Japan 0 0.89
Poland 1 1.04

June 28, 2018 · Volgograd Arena · Referee: Janny Sikazwe

Luck index +42 Poland lucky · −42 Japan

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Japan win 3, 3 end level, Poland win 4.

  1. 1 JPN 2 POL 1
  2. 2 JPN 3 POL 2
  3. 3 JPN 2 POL 0
  4. 4 JPN 1 POL 1
  5. 5 JPN 0 POL 0
  6. 6 JPN 0 POL 0
  7. 7 JPN 1 POL 4
  8. 8 JPN 0 POL 2
  9. 9 JPN 0 POL 1
  10. 10 JPN 1 POL 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Japan win 28%, 29% end level, Poland win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Poland by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Japan by 3+2.7%
Japan by 27.2%
Japan by 117.9%
Draw28.5%
Poland by 124.1%
Poland by 213.2%
Poland by 3+6.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Japan1100.89−0.89
Poland1111.04−0.04

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
58'Jan Bednarek scored from a shot0.21

When it happened

Japan’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Japan was ahead in it, below while Poland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 11' Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +5% POL
2 31' Kamil Grosicki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +4% JPN
3 57' Yoshinori Muto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +4% POL
4 57' Tomoaki Makino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +4% POL
5 58' Jan Bednarek scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +27% POL
6 61' Takashi Usami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +4% POL
7 71' Maya Yoshida didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +4% POL
8 73' Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance +2% JPN

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Japan 29% · draw 30% · Poland 41%

Final margin
Poland by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for Poland
Luck-adjusted margin
Poland by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Japan 28% · draw 29% · Poland 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Poland win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 3 matches, 2018 · Japan · Poland

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