Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 2, 2022
Cameroon 1–0 Brazil: who deserved to win?
Cameroon beat Brazil 1–0, a result the replays rarely give: Brazil win 7 of 10, Cameroon only 1, 2 end level. Brazil made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Cameroon very lucky · −87 Brazil
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cameroon win 1, 2 end level, Brazil win 7.
- 1 CMR 1 BRA 0
- 2 CMR 0 BRA 0
- 3 CMR 1 BRA 1
- 4 CMR 0 BRA 4
- 5 CMR 0 BRA 3
- 6 CMR 0 BRA 3
- 7 CMR 0 BRA 2
- 8 CMR 0 BRA 2
- 9 CMR 0 BRA 1
- 10 CMR 1 BRA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Cameroon win 5%, 15% end level, Brazil win 80%. The line is what actually happened: Cameroon by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cameroon by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Cameroon by 2 | 0.7% |
| Cameroon by 1 | 4.5% |
| Draw | 15.2% |
| Brazil by 1 | 23.7% |
| Brazil by 2 | 23.6% |
| Brazil by 3+ | 32.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cameroon | 7 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.62 |
 Brazil | 21 | 0 | 2.38 | −2.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 91' | Vincent Paté Aboubakar scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Cameroon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Frederico Rodrigues Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% CMR |
| 2 | 52' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% CMR |
| 3 | 83' | Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% CMR |
| 4 | 88' | Pedro Guilherme Abreu dos Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% CMR |
| 5 | 91' | Vincent Paté Aboubakar scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +47% CMR |
| 6 | 96' | Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +8% CMR |
| 7 | 97' | Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +10% CMR |
| 8 | 98' | Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% CMR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cameroon 5% · draw 13% · Brazil 82%
- Final margin
- Cameroon by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Cameroon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Brazil by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Cameroon 5% · draw 15% · Brazil 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Cameroon win 13% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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