Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 2, 2022
South Korea 2–1 Portugal: who deserved to win?
South Korea beat Portugal 2–1, and the replays lean South Korea’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Portugal, 3 end level. South Korea made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 2 | 1.40 |
 Portugal | 1 | 0.97 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 South Korea lucky · −43 Portugal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Korea win 4, 3 end level, Portugal win 3.
- 1 KOR 1 POR 0
- 2 KOR 2 POR 1
- 3 KOR 2 POR 0
- 4 KOR 4 POR 1
- 5 KOR 1 POR 1
- 6 KOR 0 POR 0
- 7 KOR 0 POR 0
- 8 KOR 0 POR 2
- 9 KOR 0 POR 1
- 10 KOR 1 POR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
South Korea win 43%, 28% end level, Portugal win 29%. The line is what actually happened: South Korea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Korea by 3+ | 6.3% |
| South Korea by 2 | 12.5% |
| South Korea by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% |
| Portugal by 1 | 18.9% |
| Portugal by 2 | 6.9% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 12 | 2 | 1.40 | +0.60 |
 Portugal | 13 | 1 | 0.97 | +0.03 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 26' | Young-Gwon Kim scored from a shot | 0.62 |
| 90' | Hee-Chan Hwang scored from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
South Korea’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +17% POR |
| 2 | 26' | Young-Gwon Kim scored from a shotFinishing · 62% chance | +10% KOR |
| 3 | 41' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +9% KOR |
| 4 | 43' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% KOR |
| 5 | 66' | In-Beom Hwang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% POR |
| 6 | 69' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% POR |
| 7 | 89' | João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% KOR |
| 8 | 90' | Hee-Chan Hwang scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +29% KOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Korea 49% · draw 27% · Portugal 24%
- Final margin
- South Korea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for South Korea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Korea by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- South Korea 43% · draw 28% · Portugal 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). South Korea win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2022
- Iran 0–1 United States Nov 29, 2022 · replay 61% for United States
- Wales 0–3 England Nov 29, 2022 · replay 98% for England
- Netherlands 2–0 Qatar Nov 29, 2022 · replay 89% for Netherlands
- Ecuador 1–2 Senegal Nov 29, 2022 · replay 71% for Senegal
- Tunisia 1–0 France Nov 30, 2022 · replay 45% for Tunisia
- Australia 1–0 Denmark Nov 30, 2022 · replay 44% for Australia
- Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico Nov 30, 2022 · replay 84% for Mexico
- Poland 0–2 Argentina Nov 30, 2022 · replay 97% for Argentina
- Canada 1–2 Morocco Dec 1, 2022 · replay 39% for Morocco
- Croatia 0–0 Belgium Dec 1, 2022 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Japan 2–1 Spain Dec 1, 2022 · replay 58% for Japan
- Costa Rica 2–4 Germany Dec 1, 2022 · replay 95% for Germany