Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 18, 2018
Tunisia 1–2 England: who deserved to win?
England beat Tunisia 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, England win 8 of 10, 1 end level. England made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 England about even · −16 Tunisia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tunisia win 1, 1 ends level, England win 8.
- 1 TUN 1 ENG 0
- 2 TUN 1 ENG 1
- 3 TUN 1 ENG 6
- 4 TUN 0 ENG 4
- 5 TUN 1 ENG 4
- 6 TUN 0 ENG 2
- 7 TUN 0 ENG 2
- 8 TUN 1 ENG 3
- 9 TUN 1 ENG 2
- 10 TUN 1 ENG 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tunisia win 9%, 14% end level, England win 77%. The line is what actually happened: England by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tunisia by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Tunisia by 2 | 2.0% |
| Tunisia by 1 | 6.6% |
| Draw | 14.0% |
| England by 1 | 21.1% |
| England by 2 | 21.4% |
| England by 3+ | 34.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tunisia | 6 (1 pen) | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
 England | 18 | 2 | 2.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 34' | Ferjani Sassi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 38' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 38' | John Stones didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 90' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Tunisia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% TUN |
| 2 | 10' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +20% ENG |
| 3 | 34' | Ferjani Sassi scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% TUN |
| 4 | 38' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +12% TUN |
| 5 | 38' | John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +13% TUN |
| 6 | 42' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% TUN |
| 7 | 43' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% TUN |
| 8 | 90' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +32% ENG |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tunisia 6% · draw 17% · England 77%
- Final margin
- England by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Tunisia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- England by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · England 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden