Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 19, 2018
Colombia 1–2 Japan: who deserved to win?
Japan beat Colombia 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Japan win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Japan made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Japan about even · −16 Colombia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colombia win 1, 1 ends level, Japan win 8.
- 1 COL 4 JPN 3
- 2 COL 0 JPN 0
- 3 COL 0 JPN 5
- 4 COL 0 JPN 4
- 5 COL 0 JPN 3
- 6 COL 0 JPN 2
- 7 COL 2 JPN 4
- 8 COL 0 JPN 2
- 9 COL 0 JPN 1
- 10 COL 1 JPN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Colombia win 9%, 15% end level, Japan win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Japan by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colombia by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Colombia by 2 | 1.8% |
| Colombia by 1 | 6.6% |
| Draw | 14.7% |
| Japan by 1 | 22.6% |
| Japan by 2 | 22.3% |
| Japan by 3+ | 31.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Colombia | 10 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
 Japan | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Yūya Ōsako didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 5' | Shinji Kagawa scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 38' | Juan Fernando Quintero Paniagua scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 72' | Yūya Ōsako scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Colombia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Yūya Ōsako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +8% COL |
| 2 | 2' | Shinji Kagawa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% COL |
| 3 | 5' | Shinji Kagawa scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% JPN |
| 4 | 11' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% JPN |
| 5 | 33' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% JPN |
| 6 | 38' | Juan Fernando Quintero Paniagua scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +29% COL |
| 7 | 58' | Maya Yoshida didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% COL |
| 8 | 72' | Yūya Ōsako scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +32% JPN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colombia 8% · draw 15% · Japan 76%
- Final margin
- Japan by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Colombia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Japan by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Colombia 9% · draw 15% · Japan 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Japan win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden