Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 28, 2018
England 0–1 Belgium: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat England 1–0, but the replays call it even: Belgium win 4 of 10, England 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.0).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Belgium lucky · −50 England
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. England win 3, 3 end level, Belgium win 4.
- 1 ENG 1 BEL 0
- 2 ENG 1 BEL 0
- 3 ENG 3 BEL 1
- 4 ENG 1 BEL 1
- 5 ENG 1 BEL 1
- 6 ENG 0 BEL 0
- 7 ENG 0 BEL 2
- 8 ENG 0 BEL 1
- 9 ENG 1 BEL 2
- 10 ENG 1 BEL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
England win 34%, 31% end level, Belgium win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| England by 3+ | 4.2% |
| England by 2 | 9.5% |
| England by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 30.5% |
| Belgium by 1 | 21.3% |
| Belgium by 2 | 9.8% |
| Belgium by 3+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 England | 12 | 0 | 1.20 | −1.20 |
 Belgium | 14 | 1 | 0.97 | +0.03 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Adnan Januzaj scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 65' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
When it happened
England’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Michy Batshuayi Tunga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% ENG |
| 2 | 13' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% BEL |
| 3 | 33' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BEL |
| 4 | 35' | Anga Dedryck Boyata didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ENG |
| 5 | 50' | Adnan Januzaj scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +30% BEL |
| 6 | 65' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +17% BEL |
| 7 | 82' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BEL |
| 8 | 86' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% BEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
England 42% · draw 29% · Belgium 29%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- England 34% · draw 31% · Belgium 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea