Learn · 2019–2026, every judgment call
Is the NFL rigged?
Not in the referee calls. Across 1,904 regular-season games since 2019, the judgment calls gave home teams a small edge, +0.25 points a game, and no special treatment to the teams the theory names: they cost the Chiefs 1.10 points a game, 30th of 32.
What we can test
A script can’t be proven or disproven from the outside, but the way it would have to work can be checked. If the league steered results, the steering would show up where officials have discretion: the judgment calls. Holding, pass interference, roughing and the like, as opposed to false starts and offside, which leave nothing to judge. We value every judgment call since 2019 in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out (how), and add them up per team per game.
The Chiefs
The team most often named. In the regular season the judgment calls have cost the Chiefs 1.10 points a game since 2019, 30th of 32. In 19 playoff games they’ve been worth +0.41 a game: a sample that small swings on a few flags either way. The Cowboys, the other team the theory likes, sit 9th (+0.39).
The Chiefs’ close games tell the same story. In 2024 they went 11–0 in one-score games, where the replays with the same day’s form give them 8.4 wins; in 2025 they went 1–9, where the replays give them 4.9. A record that swings from one side of its replays to the other looks like luck evening out, not like a script. The Chiefs in one-score games
Every team
Judgment calls per regular-season game since 2019: the calls that helped a team minus the calls that hurt it. The ± is one standard error: over about 119 games a team’s average is still this uncertain.
| # | Team | Calls, pts a game | ± | Games | Playoffs, pts a game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Steelers | +1.27 | 0.40 | 119 | −1.03 (5) |
| 2 |  Bengals | +1.01 | 0.40 | 118 | −0.20 (7) |
| 3 |  Falcons | +0.91 | 0.41 | 120 | – |
| 4 |  Vikings | +0.53 | 0.48 | 119 | +3.91 (4) |
| 5 |  Chargers | +0.51 | 0.42 | 119 | +4.48 (3) |
| 6 |  Packers | +0.47 | 0.43 | 120 | −1.39 (9) |
| 7 |  Giants | +0.45 | 0.42 | 119 | −1.85 (2) |
| 8 |  Panthers | +0.44 | 0.39 | 119 | +4.77 (1) |
| 9 |  Cowboys | +0.39 | 0.49 | 119 | −0.16 (4) |
| 10 |  Broncos | +0.34 | 0.39 | 119 | +1.55 (3) |
| 11 |  Dolphins | +0.33 | 0.40 | 119 | +1.12 (2) |
| 12 |  Rams | +0.31 | 0.39 | 119 | −0.01 (12) |
| 13 |  Colts | +0.25 | 0.43 | 119 | +0.64 (1) |
| 14 |  Jaguars | +0.18 | 0.47 | 119 | +0.35 (3) |
| 15 |  Seahawks | +0.18 | 0.33 | 119 | −1.85 (7) |
| 16 |  Buccaneers | +0.11 | 0.42 | 119 | +0.26 (10) |
| 17 |  Cardinals | +0.07 | 0.41 | 119 | +4.12 (1) |
| 18 |  Patriots | −0.02 | 0.37 | 119 | −0.04 (6) |
| 19 |  Texans | −0.11 | 0.36 | 119 | −1.52 (8) |
| 20 |  Commanders | −0.13 | 0.39 | 119 | −1.08 (4) |
| 21 |  Raiders | −0.25 | 0.47 | 119 | −1.41 (1) |
| 22 |  Eagles | −0.29 | 0.40 | 119 | +1.34 (11) |
| 23 |  Bears | −0.37 | 0.43 | 119 | +0.09 (3) |
| 24 |  49ers | −0.43 | 0.39 | 119 | −1.38 (14) |
| 25 |  Browns | −0.45 | 0.44 | 119 | +1.45 (3) |
| 26 |  Titans | −0.45 | 0.41 | 119 | +2.76 (5) |
| 27 |  Lions | −0.53 | 0.41 | 119 | −0.45 (4) |
| 28 |  Bills | −0.61 | 0.40 | 118 | −1.39 (15) |
| 29 |  Jets | −0.69 | 0.38 | 119 | – |
| 30 |  Chiefs | −1.10 | 0.48 | 119 | +0.41 (19) |
| 31 |  Saints | −1.13 | 0.43 | 119 | +5.84 (3) |
| 32 |  Ravens | −1.20 | 0.44 | 119 | −1.39 (8) |
More than chance?
Somewhat. If every team had the same expectation, team averages over this many games would still spread by about 0.42 points a game; the real spread is 0.60, 1.4 times as wide. But the extra spread behaves like a team trait, not a favor: a team’s call luck carries from one season to the next at a correlation of 0.29 (192 season pairs), which fits style and discipline better than favoritism. Within any one season it is mostly noise. And the teams at the top, the Steelers, the Bengals and the Falcons, aren’t the ones the theory names.
Home teams
The one edge that stands out is home field: judgment calls have been worth +0.25 points a game to the home team over 1,869 games (± 0.11). Home teams won by 1.5 points a game on average over the same games, so the calls are worth about 17% of home-field advantage. Home edges in officiating are well documented in other sports too. Penalties by team, home and away
What luck does to records
Much of what looks scripted is chance. About 39% of the spread in NFL records is luck (how we measure it), so every season produces teams that win far more close games than their play deserved, and the next season they usually don’t. We replay every game with the way both teams actually played to show which results were earned: the luckiest wins since 2019, and the biggest upsets, and which were deserved.
Questions
Do refs favor the Chiefs?
No. Judgment calls have been worth −1.10 points a game to the Chiefs in the regular season since 2019, 30th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +0.41 a game over 19 games, within what chance produces over that few games.
Do home teams get better calls?
A little: +0.25 points a game from judgment calls, about 2.3 standard errors from zero over 1,869 games. Home edges in officiating are well documented in other sports too.
Do some teams get more help than others?
The gaps between teams are wider than chance alone would make them: team averages spread by 0.60 points a game, against 0.42 if every team had the same expectation. A team’s call luck carries into the next season at a correlation of 0.29, which points to style and discipline. The top of the list is the Steelers, the Bengals and the Falcons.