2026-27 season · in progress
Pittsburgh Penguins, 2026-27: game by game
The Penguins are 1–0–0 (2 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 2.0 points. Luck added 0.0: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 0–0; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Penguins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 7–0 | 80% | +20 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Penguins win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | vs Canadiens |  Penguins by 0.3 | 55% |
| Week 2 · Oct 5 | vs Jets | Penguins by 0.6 | 60% |
| Week 2 · Oct 7 | at Capitals |  Capitals even | 50% |
| Week 2 · Oct 9 | at Blue Jackets | Penguins even | 50% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | vs Stars | Penguins by 0.4 | 57% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Blackhawks | Penguins by 0.8 | 64% |
| Week 3 · Oct 16 | at Avalanche |  Avalanche by 0.5 | 42% |
| Week 3 · Oct 17 | at Golden Knights |  Golden Knights by 0.3 | 44% |
| Week 4 · Oct 19 | at Mammoth |  Mammoth by 0.1 | 48% |
| Week 4 · Oct 22 | vs Panthers | Penguins by 0.5 | 58% |
| Week 4 · Oct 24 | vs Predators | Penguins by 0.9 | 65% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Penguins’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +2.0 |
| Goaltending | +1.2 |