2025-26 season · final
Pittsburgh Penguins, 2025-26: game by game
The Penguins went 41–25–16 (98 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 93.2 points. Luck added 4.8: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 12–23; in overtime 4–6, in the shootout 3–10.
Playoffs: 2–4.
Every game
How often the Penguins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 3–0 | 55% | +45 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Islanders | W 4–3 | 55% | +45 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 1–6 | 39% | −39 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Ducks | L 3–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @ Kings | W 4–2 | 53% | +47 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Sharks | W 3–0 | 55% | +45 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Canucks | W 5–1 | 64% | +36 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 5–3 | 28% | +72 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | L 4–5 | 43% | −43 | SO |
| Oct 27, 2025 | vs Blues | W 6–3 | 43% | +57 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Flyers | L 2–3 | 35% | −35 | SO |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ Wild | W 4–1 | 55% | +45 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Jets | L 2–5 | 39% | −39 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 3–4 | 64% | −64 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 5–3 | 60% | +40 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Devils | L 1–2 | 52% | −52 | SO |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Kings | L 2–3 | 64% | −64 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Predators | L 1–2 | 34% | −34 | OT |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Predators | W 4–0 | 61% | +39 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Wild | L 0–5 | 35% | −35 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kraken | L 2–3 | 74% | −74 | OT |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Sabres | W 4–2 | 39% | +61 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | W 4–3 | 40% | +60 | OT |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | L 2–7 | 57% | −57 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ Flyers | W 5–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Lightning | W 4–3 | 40% | +60 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Stars | L 2–3 | 53% | −53 | SO |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Ducks | L 3–4 | 83% | −83 | SO |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Canadiens | L 2–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Sharks | L 5–6 | 57% | −57 | OT |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Mammoth | L 4–5 | 28% | −28 | OT |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Oilers | L 4–6 | 46% | −46 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ Senators | L 0–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Canadiens | L 0–4 | 70% | −70 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Canadiens | W 4–3 | 74% | +26 | SO |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 3–6 | 34% | −34 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 7–3 | 46% | +54 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 5–1 | 61% | +39 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 4–3 | 42% | +58 | OT |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 4–1 | 67% | +33 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | W 5–4 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Devils | W 4–1 | 62% | +38 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Flames | L 1–2 | 64% | −64 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 0–1 | 52% | −52 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 1–2 | 51% | −51 | SO |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 6–3 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 3–4 | 66% | −66 | SO |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @ Kraken | W 6–3 | 53% | +47 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Flames | W 4–1 | 61% | +39 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 6–2 | 53% | +48 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 3–2 | 52% | +48 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 6–2 | 74% | +26 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Rangers | W 6–5 | 82% | +18 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Senators | L 2–3 | 33% | −33 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @ Islanders | L 4–5 | 74% | −74 | OT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 5–2 | 59% | +41 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vs Devils | W 4–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Rangers | L 2–3 | 48% | −48 | SO |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 5–0 | 55% | +45 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 1–2 | 58% | −58 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 1–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 3–4 | 62% | −62 | SO |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 5–4 | 65% | +35 | OT |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 4–5 | 30% | −30 | SO |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | L 2–6 | 47% | −47 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 4–3 | 44% | +56 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 7–2 | 31% | +69 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 5–6 | 43% | −43 | OT |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Jets | W 5–4 | 46% | +54 | SO |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 1–5 | 34% | −34 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 2–6 | 70% | −70 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ Senators | W 4–3 | 64% | +36 | SO |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Stars | L 3–6 | 44% | −44 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | @ Islanders | W 8–3 | 71% | +29 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 5–1 | 73% | +27 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 3–6 | 31% | −31 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 9–4 | 75% | +25 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 5–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Devils | W 5–2 | 65% | +35 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Capitals | L 3–6 | 33% | −33 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 0–3 | 50% | −50 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | @ Blues | L 5–7 | 34% | −34 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 2–3 | 34% | −34 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 0–3 | 62% | −62 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | @ Flyers | L 2–5 | 51% | −51 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 4–2 | 37% | +63 | |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 3–2 | 62% | +38 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | @ Flyers | L 0–1 | 60% | −60 | OT |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Penguins’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +19.3 |
| Empty-net goals | +4.2 |
| Overtime | −2.0 |
| Goaltending | −4.7 |
| Shootout | −7.0 |