2026-27 season · in progress
Calgary Flames, 2026-27: game by game
The Flames are 0–1–0 (0 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 0.2 points. Luck cost them 0.2: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 0–0; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Flames win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Kraken | L 1–6 | 35% | −35 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Flames win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | at Canucks |  Canucks even | 50% |
| Week 1 · Oct 4 | at Kraken |  Kraken by 0.2 | 46% |
| Week 2 · Oct 8 | vs Avalanche |  Avalanche by 0.9 | 36% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | vs Ducks |  Ducks by 0.2 | 46% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Ducks | Ducks by 0.7 | 39% |
| Week 3 · Oct 15 | at Golden Knights |  Golden Knights by 1.2 | 31% |
| Week 3 · Oct 18 | vs Hurricanes |  Hurricanes by 0.7 | 38% |
| Week 4 · Oct 22 | vs Wild |  Wild by 0.5 | 42% |
| Week 4 · Oct 24 | vs Red Wings |  Red Wings by 0.2 | 46% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Flames’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | −1.1 |
| Goaltending | −1.8 |