2025-26 season · final
Calgary Flames, 2025-26: game by game
The Flames went 34–39–9 (77 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 72.7 points. Luck added 4.3: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 14–15; in overtime 3–6, in the shootout 4–3.
Every game
How often the Flames win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ Oilers | W 4–3 | 33% | +67 | SO |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Canucks | L 1–5 | 41% | −41 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Blues | L 2–4 | 54% | −54 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | L 2–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ Mammoth | L 1–3 | 40% | −40 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | L 1–6 | 42% | −42 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Jets | L 1–2 | 36% | −36 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Canadiens | L 1–2 | 49% | −49 | OT |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Jets | L 3–5 | 51% | −51 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Rangers | W 5–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ Senators | L 3–4 | 47% | −47 | SO |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Predators | L 2–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Flyers | W 2–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 5–1 | 42% | +58 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | L 0–4 | 52% | −52 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Wild | L 0–2 | 50% | −50 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Blues | L 2–3 | 41% | −41 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 2–0 | 78% | +22 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Jets | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | SO |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | L 2–5 | 43% | −43 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Sabres | W 6–2 | 56% | +44 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Stars | W 3–2 | 56% | +44 | SO |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 5–2 | 45% | +55 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 1–5 | 56% | −56 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 5–3 | 31% | +69 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 0–1 | 45% | −46 | OT |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Predators | L 1–5 | 41% | −41 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Wild | W 4–1 | 54% | +46 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 2–0 | 55% | +45 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs Sabres | W 7–4 | 47% | +53 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs Red Wings | L 3–4 | 50% | −50 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Kings | W 2–1 | 49% | +51 | OT |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Sharks | L 3–6 | 34% | −34 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 4–2 | 63% | +37 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 6–3 | 38% | +62 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Oilers | L 1–5 | 18% | −18 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 3–2 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 2–1 | 49% | +51 | OT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Flyers | W 5–1 | 55% | +45 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Predators | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vs Kraken | L 1–5 | 55% | −55 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 1–4 | 27% | −27 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 1–4 | 44% | −44 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 2–1 | 36% | +64 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 3–5 | 42% | −42 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 3–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Islanders | W 4–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Devils | L 1–2 | 46% | −46 | OT |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 1–4 | 39% | −39 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vs Capitals | L 1–3 | 24% | −24 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 3–4 | 65% | −65 | OT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Wild | L 1–4 | 47% | −47 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 3–2 | 69% | +31 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | L 2–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Oilers | W 4–3 | 51% | +49 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 4–1 | 47% | +54 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Kings | L 0–2 | 46% | −46 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 2–3 | 51% | −51 | SO |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs Stars | L 1–6 | 30% | −30 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vs Senators | L 1–4 | 26% | −26 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 5–4 | 43% | +57 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 3–7 | 40% | −40 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Rangers | L 0–4 | 32% | −32 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Devils | W 5–4 | 41% | +59 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @ Islanders | L 2–3 | 46% | −46 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | @ Red Wings | L 2–5 | 28% | −28 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Blues | W 2–1 | 50% | +50 | SO |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 4–1 | 69% | +31 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 4–3 | 45% | +55 | OT |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Kings | W 3–2 | 48% | +52 | SO |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 2–3 | 46% | −46 | OT |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 7–3 | 40% | +60 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 2–9 | 29% | −29 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | L 3–6 | 29% | −29 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Ducks | W 5–3 | 34% | +66 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Stars | L 3–4 | 38% | −38 | OT |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 1–3 | 22% | −22 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Kraken | L 1–4 | 30% | −30 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Mammoth | W 4–1 | 68% | +32 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 1–3 | 36% | −36 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vs Kings | W 3–1 | 29% | +71 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Flames’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +8.0 |
| Shootout | +1.0 |
| Overtime | −3.1 |
| Empty-net goals | −4.1 |
| Shooting | −8.2 |