2026-27 season · in progress
Edmonton Oilers, 2026-27: game by game
The Oilers are 1–0–1 (3 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 3.2 points. Luck cost them 0.2: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 0–1; in overtime 0–1, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Oilers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs Canucks | L 5–6 | 75% | −75 | OT |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 9–7 | 57% | +43 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Oilers win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | vs Kraken |  Oilers by 0.6 | 60% |
| Week 2 · Oct 7 | at Ducks |  Ducks even | 50% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | at Sharks | Oilers by 0.3 | 55% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Kings |  Kings by 0.2 | 47% |
| Week 3 · Oct 15 | vs Mammoth | Oilers by 0.1 | 52% |
| Week 3 · Oct 17 | at Mammoth |  Mammoth by 0.3 | 44% |
| Week 4 · Oct 20 | vs Wild | Oilers by 0.2 | 53% |
| Week 4 · Oct 22 | vs Hurricanes |  Hurricanes by 0.1 | 48% |
| Week 4 · Oct 24 | vs Maple Leafs | Oilers by 0.7 | 62% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Oilers’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +5.1 |
| Overtime | −1.0 |
| Goaltending | −5.6 |