2025-26 season · final
Edmonton Oilers, 2025-26: game by game
The Oilers went 41–30–11 (93 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 91.6 points. Luck added 1.4: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 13–22; in overtime 9–7, in the shootout 0–4.
Playoffs: 2–4.
Every game
How often the Oilers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Flames | L 3–4 | 67% | −67 | SO |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Canucks | W 3–1 | 85% | +15 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 2–0 | 26% | +74 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @ Islanders | L 2–4 | 61% | −61 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Devils | L 3–5 | 43% | −43 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ Red Wings | L 2–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Senators | W 3–2 | 50% | +50 | OT |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Canadiens | W 6–5 | 43% | +57 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kraken | L 2–3 | 50% | −50 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Canucks | L 3–4 | 50% | −50 | OT |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 6–3 | 42% | +58 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 3–4 | 43% | −43 | OT |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | W 3–2 | 51% | +49 | OT |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Blues | L 2–3 | 45% | −45 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Stars | L 3–4 | 39% | −39 | SO |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Avalanche | L 1–9 | 27% | −27 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 5–4 | 43% | +57 | OT |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Flyers | W 2–1 | 47% | +53 | OT |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | L 4–5 | 33% | −33 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | W 4–3 | 49% | +51 | OT |
| Nov 17, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 1–5 | 29% | −29 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Capitals | L 4–7 | 56% | −56 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 1–2 | 31% | −31 | OT |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 6–3 | 37% | +63 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Stars | L 3–8 | 25% | −25 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 4–0 | 43% | +57 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Wild | L 0–1 | 44% | −44 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 9–4 | 48% | +52 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Jets | W 6–2 | 69% | +31 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Sabres | L 3–4 | 53% | −53 | OT |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Red Wings | W 4–1 | 43% | +57 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | W 6–3 | 49% | +51 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Canadiens | L 1–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Penguins | W 6–4 | 54% | +46 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ Bruins | W 3–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Wild | L 2–5 | 37% | −37 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 4–3 | 37% | +63 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Flames | W 5–1 | 82% | +18 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Flames | L 2–3 | 48% | −48 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ Jets | W 3–1 | 31% | +69 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Bruins | L 2–6 | 69% | −69 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 2–5 | 43% | −43 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Predators | W 6–2 | 85% | +15 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Jets | W 4–3 | 63% | +37 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Kings | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | SO |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 4–1 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Predators | L 3–4 | 56% | −56 | OT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Islanders | L 0–1 | 81% | −81 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 6–0 | 77% | +23 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs Blues | W 5–0 | 52% | +48 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Devils | L 1–2 | 54% | −54 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 2–6 | 48% | −48 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vs Capitals | W 6–5 | 72% | +28 | OT |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 7–4 | 50% | +50 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 4–3 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Wild | L 3–7 | 58% | −58 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | L 2–5 | 53% | −53 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @ Flames | L 3–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 5–6 | 57% | −57 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Kings | W 8–1 | 68% | +32 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Sharks | L 4–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs Senators | W 5–4 | 64% | +36 | OT |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 3–6 | 38% | −38 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 4–3 | 49% | +51 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Stars | L 2–7 | 51% | −51 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | @ Blues | L 2–3 | 57% | −57 | OT |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Predators | W 3–1 | 73% | +27 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 5–3 | 53% | +47 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Panthers | L 0–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 2–5 | 42% | −42 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 5–2 | 52% | +48 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–3 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 4–2 | 60% | +40 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 3–0 | 50% | +50 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 3–1 | 68% | +32 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 1–5 | 50% | −50 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 5–6 | 34% | −34 | OT |
| Apr 8, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 5–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Kings | L 0–1 | 49% | −49 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 1–2 | 33% | −33 | SO |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 6–1 | 79% | +21 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 4–3 | 63% | +37 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 4–6 | 58% | −58 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 4–7 | 36% | −36 | |
| Apr 27, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 3–4 | 38% | −38 | OT |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 4–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| May 1, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 2–5 | 42% | −42 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Oilers’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +7.3 |
| Shooting | +6.0 |
| Overtime | +2.0 |
| Shootout | −4.0 |
| Goaltending | −7.8 |