2025-26 season · final
Minnesota Wild, 2025-26: game by game
The Wild went 46–24–12 (104 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 93.2 points. Luck added 10.8: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 20–17; in overtime 11–7, in the shootout 4–5.
Playoffs: 5–6.
Every game
How often the Wild win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Blues | W 5–0 | 35% | +65 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | L 4–7 | 60% | −60 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs Kings | W 4–3 | 51% | +49 | SO |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Stars | L 2–5 | 53% | −53 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Capitals | L 1–5 | 20% | −20 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Flyers | L 1–2 | 49% | −49 | OT |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 3–1 | 51% | +49 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Devils | L 1–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Mammoth | L 2–6 | 40% | −40 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Sharks | L 5–6 | 54% | −54 | OT |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Jets | L 3–4 | 61% | −61 | OT |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Penguins | L 1–4 | 45% | −45 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Canucks | W 5–2 | 56% | +44 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Predators | W 3–2 | 47% | +53 | OT |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–4 | 28% | −28 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ Islanders | W 5–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Flames | W 2–0 | 50% | +50 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Sharks | L 1–2 | 63% | −63 | OT |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Ducks | W 2–0 | 62% | +38 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 3–2 | 44% | +56 | OT |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 4–3 | 34% | +66 | SO |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ Penguins | W 5–0 | 65% | +35 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Jets | W 3–0 | 39% | +61 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 4–3 | 29% | +71 | OT |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Avalanche | W 3–2 | 54% | +46 | SO |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Sabres | L 2–3 | 46% | −46 | SO |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Oilers | W 1–0 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Flames | L 1–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Canucks | L 2–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 4–1 | 63% | +37 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Stars | W 5–2 | 83% | +17 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Senators | W 3–2 | 33% | +67 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 6–2 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 5–0 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | W 5–2 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 5–2 | 63% | +37 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Avalanche | L 1–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Predators | L 2–3 | 43% | −43 | OT |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Jets | W 4–3 | 45% | +55 | OT |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 5–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Sharks | L 3–4 | 50% | −50 | SO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | @ Ducks | W 5–2 | 66% | +34 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Kings | L 4–5 | 49% | −49 | SO |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @ Kings | L 2–4 | 48% | −48 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Kraken | W 3–2 | 36% | +64 | OT |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Islanders | L 3–4 | 70% | −70 | OT |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Devils | L 2–5 | 48% | −48 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Jets | L 2–6 | 47% | −47 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 5–4 | 67% | +33 | OT |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 6–3 | 63% | +37 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 3–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 4–3 | 58% | +42 | OT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vs Panthers | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | OT |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 4–3 | 26% | +74 | SO |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Flames | W 4–1 | 53% | +47 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 7–3 | 42% | +58 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 4–3 | 64% | +36 | OT |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @ Predators | W 6–5 | 55% | +45 | OT |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 5–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 2–5 | 34% | −34 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vs Blues | L 1–3 | 56% | −56 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 5–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 2–3 | 26% | −26 | SO |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Mammoth | W 5–0 | 61% | +39 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 2–3 | 69% | −69 | SO |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Rangers | L 2–4 | 70% | −70 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | L 2–4 | 67% | −67 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 4–3 | 51% | +49 | OT |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | L 1–2 | 43% | −43 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Stars | W 2–1 | 46% | +54 | OT |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 3–6 | 37% | −37 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ Panthers | W 3–2 | 80% | +20 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 3–6 | 57% | −57 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 5–2 | 70% | +30 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Senators | W 4–1 | 53% | +47 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 5–4 | 48% | +52 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 5–2 | 50% | +50 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Stars | L 4–5 | 60% | −60 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Predators | L 1–2 | 57% | −57 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @ Blues | L 3–6 | 52% | −52 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 3–2 | 33% | +67 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @ Stars | W 6–1 | 44% | +56 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @ Stars | L 2–4 | 56% | −56 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Stars | L 3–4 | 26% | −26 | 2OT |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Stars | W 3–2 | 52% | +48 | OT |
| Apr 29, 2026 | @ Stars | W 4–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | vs Stars | W 5–2 | 56% | +44 | |
| May 4, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 6–9 | 39% | −39 | |
| May 6, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 2–5 | 54% | −54 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 5–1 | 55% | +45 | |
| May 12, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 2–5 | 34% | −34 | |
| May 14, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 3–4 | 34% | −34 | OT |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Wild’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +8.3 |
| Goaltending | +8.0 |
| Overtime | +3.9 |
| Empty-net goals | −0.4 |
| Shootout | −1.0 |