2025-26 season · final
Vegas Golden Knights, 2025-26: game by game
The Golden Knights went 39–26–17 (95 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 102.5 points. Luck cost them 7.5: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 16–27; in overtime 8–9, in the shootout 1–8.
Playoffs: 14–8.
Every game
How often the Golden Knights win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Kings | L 5–6 | 62% | −62 | SO |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Sharks | W 4–3 | 54% | +46 | OT |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kraken | L 1–2 | 48% | −48 | OT |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Flames | W 4–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 6–5 | 72% | +28 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Flames | W 6–1 | 58% | +42 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 4–1 | 57% | +43 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 0–3 | 29% | −29 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 1–2 | 36% | −36 | OT |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | W 6–3 | 77% | +23 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs Avalanche | L 2–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Red Wings | W 1–0 | 72% | +28 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 3–6 | 40% | −40 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Ducks | L 3–4 | 64% | −64 | OT |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vs Panthers | L 2–3 | 58% | −58 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 3–4 | 66% | −66 | OT |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Blues | W 4–1 | 72% | +28 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Wild | L 2–3 | 56% | −56 | OT |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Rangers | W 3–2 | 59% | +41 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Mammoth | W 4–1 | 53% | +48 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Ducks | L 3–4 | 53% | −53 | OT |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Mammoth | L 1–5 | 61% | −61 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Senators | L 3–4 | 71% | −71 | SO |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Canadiens | L 1–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 4–3 | 67% | +33 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | W 4–3 | 52% | +48 | SO |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Devils | W 3–0 | 57% | +43 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 3–2 | 48% | +52 | OT |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ Islanders | L 4–5 | 52% | −52 | SO |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Flyers | W 3–2 | 57% | +43 | OT |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | W 3–2 | 45% | +55 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Devils | L 1–2 | 44% | −44 | SO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Flames | L 3–6 | 62% | −62 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Oilers | L 3–4 | 63% | −63 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 7–2 | 75% | +25 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Avalanche | L 5–6 | 44% | −44 | SO |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Wild | L 2–5 | 51% | −51 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Predators | L 2–4 | 61% | −61 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | @ Blues | L 3–4 | 50% | −50 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | L 2–3 | 54% | −54 | OT |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Jets | W 4–3 | 60% | +40 | OT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | W 5–3 | 53% | +47 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Blues | W 4–2 | 56% | +44 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 7–2 | 67% | +33 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ Kings | W 3–2 | 39% | +61 | OT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 6–5 | 50% | +50 | OT |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Predators | W 7–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 1–2 | 65% | −65 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 3–4 | 72% | −72 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 6–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ Senators | L 1–7 | 41% | −41 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 2–3 | 68% | −68 | OT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Stars | L 4–5 | 37% | −37 | SO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Kraken | L 2–3 | 54% | −54 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 3–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 5–2 | 72% | +28 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs Kings | W 4–1 | 36% | +64 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ Kings | W 6–4 | 54% | +46 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 2–3 | 54% | −54 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 0–5 | 45% | −45 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 2–3 | 54% | −54 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 4–3 | 43% | +57 | OT |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vs Wild | L 2–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vs Oilers | L 2–4 | 52% | −52 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Stars | L 1–2 | 38% | −38 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Penguins | W 6–2 | 53% | +47 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 4–0 | 71% | +29 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 0–2 | 62% | −62 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 0–4 | 69% | −69 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @ Predators | L 1–4 | 58% | −58 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @ Stars | W 3–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ Jets | L 1–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Oilers | L 3–4 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Capitals | L 4–5 | 61% | −61 | SO |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 4–2 | 69% | +31 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Flames | W 6–3 | 71% | +29 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 5–1 | 50% | +50 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 2–1 | 80% | +20 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Kraken | L 3–4 | 50% | −50 | SO |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 3–2 | 48% | +52 | OT |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Jets | W 6–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 4–1 | 71% | +29 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | vs Mammoth | W 4–2 | 60% | +40 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 2–3 | 26% | −26 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 2–4 | 70% | −70 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 5–4 | 61% | +39 | OT |
| Apr 30, 2026 | vs Mammoth | W 5–4 | 45% | +55 | 2OT |
| May 2, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 5–1 | 48% | +52 | |
| May 5, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 3–1 | 50% | +50 | |
| May 7, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 1–3 | 43% | −43 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @ Ducks | W 6–2 | 74% | +26 | |
| May 11, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 3–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| May 13, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 3–2 | 59% | +41 | OT |
| May 15, 2026 | @ Ducks | W 5–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| May 21, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 4–2 | 28% | +72 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 3–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| May 25, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 5–3 | 43% | +57 | |
| May 27, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 2–1 | 72% | +28 | |
| Jun 3, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | W 5–4 | 63% | +37 | |
| Jun 5, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–4 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Jun 7, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 5–4 | 51% | +49 | OT |
| Jun 10, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 3–5 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jun 12, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jun 15, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 0–3 | 55% | −55 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Golden Knights’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +3.5 |
| Shooting | −0.4 |
| Overtime | −0.8 |
| Shootout | −7.0 |
| Goaltending | −20.1 |