2025-26 season · final
New York Islanders, 2025-26: game by game
The Islanders went 43–34–5 (91 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 78.2 points. Luck added 12.8: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 27–16; in overtime 10–0, in the shootout 4–5.
Every game
How often the Islanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Penguins | L 3–4 | 45% | −45 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Capitals | L 2–4 | 33% | −33 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs Jets | L 2–5 | 54% | −54 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 4–2 | 39% | +61 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Senators | W 5–4 | 44% | +56 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 4–3 | 49% | +51 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Red Wings | W 7–2 | 38% | +62 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Flyers | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | SO |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 2–5 | 66% | −66 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–6 | 25% | −25 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Capitals | W 3–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 3–2 | 63% | +37 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Bruins | L 3–4 | 60% | −60 | SO |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Wild | L 2–5 | 39% | −39 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 5–0 | 45% | +55 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ Devils | W 3–2 | 20% | +80 | OT |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–3 | 34% | +66 | OT |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Mammoth | W 3–2 | 43% | +57 | OT |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 1–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Stars | W 3–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Red Wings | W 5–0 | 60% | +40 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Blues | L 1–2 | 52% | −52 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 1–0 | 66% | +34 | SO |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Bruins | L 1–3 | 73% | −73 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Flyers | L 3–4 | 67% | −67 | SO |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Capitals | L 1–4 | 71% | −71 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Lightning | W 2–1 | 34% | +66 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Avalanche | W 6–3 | 61% | +39 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Lightning | W 2–0 | 34% | +66 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 1–4 | 48% | −48 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 5–4 | 48% | +52 | SO |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Ducks | W 5–2 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Lightning | W 3–2 | 30% | +70 | SO |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Red Wings | L 2–3 | 33% | −33 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Canucks | L 1–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 2–3 | 33% | −33 | SO |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Devils | W 2–1 | 46% | +54 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Rangers | W 2–0 | 58% | +42 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | L 2–4 | 15% | −15 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 3–2 | 48% | +52 | SO |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 2–7 | 45% | −45 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 4–3 | 45% | +55 | OT |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Devils | W 9–0 | 34% | +66 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Predators | L 1–2 | 48% | −48 | SO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Wild | W 4–3 | 30% | +70 | OT |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Jets | L 4–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 1–0 | 19% | +81 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Flames | L 2–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 4–3 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Kraken | L 1–4 | 55% | −55 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 0–5 | 52% | −52 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 4–0 | 40% | +60 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs Rangers | W 5–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 2–1 | 40% | +60 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Predators | L 3–4 | 32% | −32 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 1–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vs Penguins | W 5–4 | 26% | +74 | OT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Devils | W 3–1 | 44% | +56 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 4–3 | 46% | +54 | OT |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | W 4–3 | 45% | +55 | OT |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 5–4 | 34% | +66 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 1–5 | 56% | −56 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Kings | L 3–5 | 39% | −39 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 2–1 | 42% | +58 | OT |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Blues | W 4–3 | 71% | +29 | OT |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Kings | L 2–3 | 38% | −38 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Flames | W 3–2 | 54% | +46 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 3–1 | 67% | +33 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Senators | L 2–3 | 32% | −32 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 3–7 | 27% | −27 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | W 1–0 | 57% | +43 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | L 3–4 | 81% | −81 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Stars | W 2–1 | 58% | +42 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 5–2 | 80% | +20 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 3–8 | 29% | −29 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 3–4 | 28% | −28 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 1–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–4 | 28% | −28 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 5–3 | 90% | +10 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Senators | L 0–3 | 68% | −68 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 1–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 1–2 | 46% | −46 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Islanders’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +17.9 |
| Overtime | +10.1 |
| Empty-net goals | +3.6 |
| Shootout | −1.0 |
| Shooting | −12.5 |