2025-26 season · final
Dallas Stars, 2025-26: game by game
The Stars went 50–20–12 (112 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 102.1 points. Luck added 9.9: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 28–18; in overtime 6–8, in the shootout 6–4.
Playoffs: 2–4.
Every game
How often the Stars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Jets | W 5–4 | 60% | +40 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Avalanche | W 5–4 | 33% | +67 | SO |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Wild | W 5–2 | 47% | +53 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vs Canucks | L 3–5 | 65% | −65 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Blues | L 1–3 | 40% | −40 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | L 1–5 | 62% | −62 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Kings | L 2–3 | 62% | −62 | OT |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 3–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Predators | W 3–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 1–0 | 46% | +54 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 1–2 | 32% | −32 | OT |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 3–4 | 34% | −34 | SO |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 4–3 | 61% | +39 | SO |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Ducks | L 5–7 | 54% | −54 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Predators | W 5–4 | 66% | +34 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 2–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Senators | W 3–2 | 52% | +48 | OT |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Canadiens | W 7–0 | 48% | +52 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Flyers | W 5–1 | 74% | +26 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 2–3 | 57% | −57 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 4–2 | 32% | +68 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Flames | L 2–3 | 44% | −44 | SO |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Oilers | W 8–3 | 75% | +25 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 3–2 | 53% | +47 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 4–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Senators | W 6–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Rangers | L 2–3 | 32% | −32 | OT |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Devils | W 3–0 | 49% | +51 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 4–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Penguins | W 3–2 | 47% | +53 | SO |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ Jets | W 4–3 | 53% | +47 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Wild | L 2–5 | 17% | −17 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Panthers | L 0–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vs Kings | W 4–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ Sharks | W 5–3 | 35% | +65 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @ Ducks | W 8–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 5–1 | 44% | +56 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Red Wings | L 3–4 | 58% | −58 | OT |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | L 3–4 | 73% | −73 | SO |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Sabres | L 1–4 | 52% | −52 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | L 3–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 3–4 | 45% | −45 | OT |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–6 | 37% | −37 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Capitals | W 4–1 | 75% | +25 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Sharks | L 4–5 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ Kings | W 3–1 | 46% | +54 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 1–3 | 43% | −43 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 1–2 | 41% | −41 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 1–4 | 47% | −47 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 6–2 | 65% | +35 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 0–1 | 61% | −61 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vs Blues | W 3–2 | 52% | +48 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Blues | W 4–3 | 68% | +32 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 5–4 | 63% | +37 | SO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 3–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Jets | W 4–3 | 70% | +30 | OT |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Blues | W 5–4 | 75% | +25 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 4–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Predators | W 3–2 | 54% | +46 | OT |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 6–1 | 81% | +19 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Flames | W 6–1 | 70% | +30 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 4–5 | 57% | −57 | SO |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 4–3 | 69% | +31 | OT |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 2–1 | 62% | +38 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Oilers | W 7–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 3–2 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 3–6 | 73% | −73 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 2–1 | 36% | +64 | SO |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @ Wild | L 1–2 | 54% | −54 | OT |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 2–3 | 29% | −29 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Devils | L 4–6 | 37% | −37 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ Islanders | L 1–2 | 42% | −42 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 6–3 | 56% | +44 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | @ Flyers | L 1–2 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 3–6 | 41% | −41 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Jets | W 3–0 | 51% | +49 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 0–2 | 56% | −56 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vs Flames | W 4–3 | 62% | +38 | OT |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Wild | W 5–4 | 40% | +60 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Rangers | W 2–0 | 50% | +50 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 6–5 | 63% | +37 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 4–3 | 52% | +48 | SO |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Wild | L 1–6 | 56% | −56 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Wild | W 4–2 | 44% | +56 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | @ Wild | W 4–3 | 74% | +26 | 2OT |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @ Wild | L 2–3 | 48% | −48 | OT |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vs Wild | L 2–4 | 43% | −43 | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | @ Wild | L 2–5 | 44% | −44 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Stars’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +16.0 |
| Goaltending | +10.3 |
| Shootout | +2.0 |
| Overtime | −2.0 |
| Empty-net goals | −10.5 |