2025-26 season · final
Washington Capitals, 2025-26: game by game
The Capitals went 43–30–9 (95 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 92.2 points. Luck added 2.8: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 13–17; in overtime 4–3, in the shootout 2–6.
Every game
How often the Capitals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Bruins | L 1–3 | 73% | −73 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Islanders | W 4–2 | 67% | +33 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 1–0 | 38% | +62 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Lightning | W 3–2 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Wild | W 5–1 | 80% | +20 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Canucks | L 3–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 4–1 | 70% | +30 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | W 5–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Senators | L 1–7 | 26% | −26 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Stars | L 0–1 | 54% | −54 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 1–3 | 48% | −48 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 3–4 | 40% | −40 | SO |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Blues | W 6–1 | 68% | +32 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Penguins | L 3–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 2–3 | 60% | −60 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | W 4–1 | 41% | +59 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 3–6 | 48% | −48 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Devils | L 2–3 | 43% | −43 | SO |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs Kings | W 2–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 7–4 | 44% | +56 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Canadiens | W 8–4 | 62% | +38 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 3–5 | 70% | −70 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 5–1 | 61% | +39 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Jets | W 4–3 | 47% | +53 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 4–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Islanders | W 4–1 | 29% | +71 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Kings | W 3–1 | 50% | +50 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Sharks | W 7–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Ducks | L 3–4 | 43% | −43 | SO |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 2–0 | 61% | +39 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 38% | −38 | SO |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Jets | L 1–5 | 32% | −32 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Wild | L 0–5 | 44% | −44 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 4–0 | 67% | +33 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Red Wings | L 2–5 | 27% | −27 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Red Wings | L 2–3 | 76% | −76 | OT |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 3–7 | 59% | −59 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Devils | W 4–3 | 65% | +35 | OT |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 3–5 | 46% | −46 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Rangers | W 6–3 | 51% | +49 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Senators | L 3–4 | 39% | −39 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | L 2–3 | 55% | −55 | SO |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 7–4 | 46% | +54 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vs Stars | L 1–4 | 25% | −25 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 5–1 | 44% | +56 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ Predators | L 2–3 | 53% | −53 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 3–2 | 56% | +44 | OT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Sharks | L 2–3 | 41% | −41 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Panthers | L 2–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 2–5 | 30% | −30 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Canucks | L 3–4 | 61% | −61 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @ Flames | W 3–1 | 76% | +24 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Oilers | L 5–6 | 28% | −28 | OT |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Kraken | L 1–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 4–3 | 50% | +51 | SO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 4–3 | 68% | +32 | OT |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Islanders | W 4–1 | 41% | +59 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @ Flyers | L 2–4 | 43% | −43 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs Predators | W 4–2 | 45% | +55 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 3–1 | 58% | +42 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 3–2 | 46% | +54 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 2–6 | 57% | −57 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 2–3 | 51% | −51 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 1–3 | 37% | −37 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vs Flames | W 7–3 | 60% | +40 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | @ Flyers | L 1–4 | 64% | −64 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 2–1 | 43% | +57 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Bruins | L 2–3 | 50% | −50 | SO |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Senators | W 4–1 | 45% | +55 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Devils | W 2–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 2–3 | 67% | −67 | OT |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ Blues | L 0–3 | 38% | −38 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 7–4 | 30% | +70 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 5–4 | 39% | +61 | SO |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 6–4 | 42% | +58 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Devils | L 3–7 | 55% | −55 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Sabres | W 6–2 | 45% | +55 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @ Rangers | L 1–8 | 21% | −21 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 4–0 | 52% | +48 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 6–3 | 67% | +33 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Penguins | W 3–0 | 50% | +50 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | W 2–1 | 54% | +46 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Capitals’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +17.1 |
| Overtime | +1.0 |
| Empty-net goals | +0.9 |
| Shootout | −4.0 |
| Shooting | −6.3 |