luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · January 19, 2020

Conference championships 2019: who deserved to win

Every winner of Conference championships earned it. The closest call: the Chiefs won 35–24 and take 83% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Luck ranking, conference championships

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chiefs W 35–24 vs Titans 83% +17
2 49ers W 37–20 vs Packers 95% +5
3 Packers L 20–37 @ 49ers 5% −5
4 Titans L 24–35 @ Chiefs 17% −17