2025-26 season · final
Detroit Red Wings, 2025-26: game by game
The Red Wings went 41–31–10 (92 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 84.8 points. Luck added 7.2: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 18–15; in overtime 9–6, in the shootout 2–4.
Every game
How often the Red Wings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Canadiens | L 1–5 | 66% | −66 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 6–3 | 60% | +40 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | W 3–2 | 38% | +62 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Panthers | W 4–1 | 58% | +42 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Lightning | W 2–1 | 46% | +54 | OT |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 4–2 | 51% | +49 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 2–4 | 30% | −30 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Islanders | L 2–7 | 62% | −62 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Blues | W 6–4 | 26% | +74 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Blues | W 5–2 | 62% | +38 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ Kings | W 4–3 | 43% | +57 | SO |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Ducks | L 2–5 | 59% | −59 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Sharks | W 3–2 | 71% | +29 | SO |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | L 0–1 | 28% | −28 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 1–4 | 37% | −37 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | L 1–5 | 85% | −85 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Ducks | W 6–3 | 53% | +47 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Sabres | L 4–5 | 54% | −54 | OT |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 2–1 | 80% | +20 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 4–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 0–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 4–3 | 40% | +60 | OT |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Devils | L 3–4 | 70% | −70 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Predators | L 3–6 | 49% | −49 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 3–6 | 55% | −55 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 2–3 | 55% | −55 | SO |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 5–4 | 62% | +38 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | L 5–6 | 64% | −64 | SO |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 4–3 | 47% | +53 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 4–0 | 23% | +77 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Flames | W 4–3 | 50% | +50 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Oilers | L 1–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 4–0 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Islanders | W 3–2 | 67% | +33 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Mammoth | L 1–4 | 50% | −50 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Capitals | W 5–2 | 73% | +27 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 3–2 | 24% | +76 | OT |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Stars | W 4–3 | 42% | +58 | OT |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–5 | 20% | −20 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 3–2 | 57% | +43 | OT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Jets | W 2–1 | 35% | +65 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 3–4 | 58% | −58 | OT |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 1–4 | 33% | −33 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @ Senators | W 5–3 | 31% | +69 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 5–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 4–0 | 59% | +41 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 4–3 | 37% | +63 | OT |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 0–3 | 33% | −33 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 4–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs Senators | W 4–3 | 71% | +29 | OT |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 2–1 | 30% | +70 | OT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Wild | L 3–4 | 42% | −42 | OT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Jets | W 5–1 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vs Kings | L 1–3 | 51% | −51 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Capitals | L 3–4 | 51% | −51 | SO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 0–5 | 36% | −36 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 2–0 | 55% | +45 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 1–4 | 47% | −47 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Senators | W 2–1 | 31% | +69 | OT |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–5 | 34% | −34 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @ Predators | W 4–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 3–4 | 57% | −57 | OT |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vs Panthers | L 1–3 | 70% | −70 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @ Devils | W 3–0 | 58% | +42 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Panthers | L 3–4 | 61% | −61 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 1–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @ Stars | L 2–3 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vs Flames | W 5–2 | 72% | +28 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 3–1 | 43% | +57 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Bruins | L 2–4 | 58% | −58 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Senators | L 2–3 | 52% | −52 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 5–2 | 36% | +64 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 3–5 | 35% | −35 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 1–5 | 27% | −27 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 4–2 | 29% | +71 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Rangers | L 1–4 | 50% | −50 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs Wild | L 4–5 | 52% | −52 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 3–4 | 43% | −43 | SO |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 6–3 | 42% | +58 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Devils | L 3–5 | 45% | −45 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 3–4 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| Apr 15, 2026 | @ Panthers | L 1–8 | 43% | −43 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Red Wings’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +5.7 |
| Overtime | +2.9 |
| Goaltending | +2.9 |
| Shootout | −2.0 |
| Shooting | −19.3 |