2025-26 season · final
Florida Panthers, 2025-26: game by game
The Panthers went 40–38–4 (84 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 85.3 points. Luck cost them 1.3: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 21–10; in overtime 3–2, in the shootout 5–2.
Every game
How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | W 3–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Flyers | W 2–1 | 69% | +31 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Senators | W 6–2 | 68% | +32 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ Flyers | L 2–5 | 40% | −40 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ Red Wings | L 1–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @ Devils | L 1–3 | 38% | −38 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 0–3 | 62% | −62 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Bruins | W 4–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Penguins | L 3–5 | 72% | −72 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 3–0 | 71% | +29 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Ducks | L 2–3 | 69% | −69 | SO |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Stars | W 4–3 | 66% | +34 | SO |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Ducks | L 3–7 | 35% | −35 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Kings | W 5–2 | 47% | +53 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Sharks | L 1–3 | 69% | −69 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 3–2 | 42% | +58 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 6–3 | 52% | +48 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 1–3 | 44% | −44 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs Canucks | W 8–5 | 68% | +32 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Devils | W 1–0 | 63% | +37 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Oilers | L 3–6 | 63% | −63 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Predators | W 8–3 | 53% | +47 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Flyers | L 2–4 | 62% | −62 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Flames | L 3–5 | 69% | −69 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | L 1–4 | 27% | −27 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Predators | L 1–2 | 53% | −53 | OT |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | W 7–6 | 66% | +34 | OT |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Islanders | W 4–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Mammoth | W 4–3 | 57% | +43 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 2–6 | 24% | −24 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Stars | W 4–0 | 59% | +41 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ Lightning | W 5–2 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Kings | W 3–2 | 41% | +59 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 4–3 | 60% | +40 | SO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Blues | L 2–6 | 43% | −43 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | W 5–2 | 51% | +49 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 2–4 | 69% | −69 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 5–3 | 54% | +46 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Canadiens | L 2–3 | 51% | −51 | OT |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Rangers | L 1–5 | 61% | −61 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 2–1 | 45% | +55 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | L 1–4 | 40% | −40 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 2–6 | 61% | −61 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Senators | W 3–2 | 35% | +65 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 4–3 | 55% | +45 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 1–9 | 17% | −17 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Capitals | W 5–2 | 60% | +40 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Sharks | L 1–4 | 47% | −47 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Jets | W 2–1 | 41% | +59 | SO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Wild | W 4–3 | 54% | +46 | OT |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 5–1 | 50% | +50 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 3–4 | 60% | −60 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Blues | L 4–5 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Jets | L 1–2 | 46% | −46 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 3–5 | 69% | −69 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 5–4 | 53% | +47 | SO |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 1–6 | 51% | −51 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 5–1 | 62% | +38 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 2–3 | 56% | −56 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ Islanders | L 4–5 | 66% | −66 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Devils | L 1–5 | 45% | −45 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 2–4 | 58% | −58 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 3–1 | 30% | +70 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 4–3 | 39% | +61 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | W 2–1 | 30% | +70 | OT |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @ Kraken | L 2–6 | 46% | −46 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @ Canucks | L 2–5 | 62% | −62 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 4–0 | 54% | +46 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @ Flames | L 1–4 | 31% | −31 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 5–4 | 50% | +50 | SO |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Wild | L 2–3 | 20% | −20 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Islanders | L 2–5 | 20% | −20 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | @ Rangers | L 1–3 | 61% | −61 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Senators | W 6–3 | 77% | +23 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 2–1 | 53% | +47 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 4–9 | 25% | −25 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 2–5 | 42% | −42 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 3–4 | 52% | −52 | SO |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Senators | L 1–5 | 34% | −34 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 6–2 | 44% | +56 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Rangers | W 3–2 | 25% | +75 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 8–1 | 57% | +43 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +3.8 |
| Shootout | +3.0 |
| Overtime | +0.9 |
| Shooting | −4.2 |
| Goaltending | −19.7 |