2025-26 season · final
Utah Mammoth, 2025-26: game by game
The Mammoth went 43–33–6 (92 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 93.7 points. Luck cost them 1.7: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 16–17; in overtime 10–6, in the shootout 0–0.
Playoffs: 2–4.
Every game
How often the Mammoth win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 1–2 | 53% | −53 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Predators | W 3–2 | 42% | +58 | OT |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | L 1–3 | 55% | −55 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Flames | W 3–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 6–3 | 75% | +25 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 3–2 | 66% | +34 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Avalanche | W 4–3 | 51% | +49 | OT |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Blues | W 7–4 | 45% | +55 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Wild | W 6–2 | 61% | +40 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Jets | W 3–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Oilers | L 3–6 | 58% | −58 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 2–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Sabres | W 2–1 | 76% | +24 | OT |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 3–5 | 41% | −41 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Canadiens | L 2–6 | 50% | −50 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Senators | L 2–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Sabres | W 5–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 2–3 | 57% | −57 | OT |
| Nov 17, 2025 | @ Ducks | L 2–3 | 45% | −45 | OT |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Sharks | L 2–3 | 60% | −60 | OT |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | L 1–4 | 48% | −48 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Rangers | W 3–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | W 5–1 | 39% | +61 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Canadiens | L 3–4 | 63% | −63 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Stars | L 3–4 | 42% | −42 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Blues | L 0–1 | 44% | −44 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ Sharks | L 3–6 | 40% | −40 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Ducks | W 7–0 | 62% | +38 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 4–1 | 37% | +63 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Flames | L 0–2 | 45% | −45 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs Kings | L 2–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs Panthers | L 3–4 | 43% | −43 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 5–3 | 41% | +59 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Penguins | W 5–4 | 72% | +28 | OT |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 1–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ Red Wings | W 4–1 | 50% | +50 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Devils | L 1–2 | 57% | −57 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Jets | W 4–3 | 69% | +31 | OT |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 0–1 | 40% | −40 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Predators | L 3–4 | 67% | −67 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Islanders | W 7–2 | 55% | +45 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Devils | L 1–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 3–2 | 49% | +51 | OT |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vs Senators | W 3–1 | 52% | +48 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vs Blues | W 4–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 2–3 | 27% | −27 | OT |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 6–1 | 79% | +21 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Stars | W 2–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 6–3 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 5–4 | 29% | +71 | OT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Predators | W 5–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 0–2 | 52% | −52 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Panthers | W 4–3 | 40% | +60 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 4–5 | 44% | −44 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Stars | L 2–3 | 29% | −29 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 6–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Red Wings | W 4–1 | 53% | +47 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vs Avalanche | L 2–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vs Wild | W 5–2 | 66% | +34 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | L 0–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Capitals | W 3–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 3–0 | 53% | +47 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | W 5–4 | 39% | +61 | OT |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | L 2–3 | 40% | −40 | OT |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Wild | L 0–5 | 39% | −39 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | L 2–3 | 77% | −77 | OT |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 3–4 | 56% | −56 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | @ Stars | W 6–3 | 27% | +73 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–0 | 31% | +69 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 1–4 | 65% | −65 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Kings | W 6–5 | 48% | +52 | OT |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Oilers | L 2–5 | 48% | −48 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Capitals | L 4–7 | 70% | −70 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Kings | W 6–2 | 60% | +40 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Kraken | W 6–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 7–4 | 57% | +43 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vs Oilers | W 6–5 | 66% | +34 | OT |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Predators | W 4–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 1–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @ Flames | L 1–4 | 32% | −32 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Jets | W 5–3 | 68% | +32 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vs Blues | L 3–5 | 53% | −53 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | L 2–4 | 40% | −40 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 3–2 | 74% | +26 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 4–2 | 30% | +70 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 4–5 | 39% | −39 | OT |
| Apr 30, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | L 4–5 | 55% | −55 | 2OT |
| May 2, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 1–5 | 52% | −52 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Mammoth’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +5.1 |
| Overtime | +4.0 |
| Goaltending | +3.6 |
| Shooting | −2.0 |