2025-26 season · final
Philadelphia Flyers, 2025-26: game by game
The Flyers went 43–27–12 (98 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 89.9 points. Luck added 8.1: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 17–17; in overtime 6–8, in the shootout 10–4.
Playoffs: 4–6.
Every game
How often the Flyers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 1–2 | 31% | −31 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–4 | 28% | −28 | OT |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs Panthers | W 5–2 | 60% | +40 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vs Jets | L 2–5 | 61% | −61 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Wild | W 2–1 | 51% | +49 | OT |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 5–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Senators | L 1–2 | 49% | −49 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Islanders | W 4–3 | 54% | +46 | SO |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Penguins | W 3–2 | 65% | +35 | SO |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Predators | W 4–1 | 31% | +69 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | L 2–5 | 48% | −48 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Flames | L 1–2 | 53% | −53 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Canadiens | W 5–4 | 73% | +27 | SO |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Predators | W 3–1 | 31% | +69 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Senators | L 2–3 | 53% | −53 | OT |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Oilers | L 1–2 | 53% | −53 | OT |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Blues | W 6–5 | 40% | +60 | SO |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Stars | L 1–5 | 26% | −26 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Blues | W 3–2 | 58% | +42 | OT |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Devils | W 6–3 | 59% | +41 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 0–3 | 32% | −32 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 4–2 | 38% | +62 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Islanders | W 4–3 | 33% | +67 | SO |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Devils | W 5–3 | 41% | +59 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs Penguins | L 1–5 | 41% | −41 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Sabres | W 5–2 | 62% | +38 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Avalanche | L 2–3 | 38% | −38 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 4–1 | 65% | +35 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Golden Knights | L 2–3 | 43% | −43 | OT |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | L 3–4 | 43% | −43 | SO |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 47% | −47 | SO |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Canadiens | W 4–1 | 41% | +59 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 3–5 | 48% | −48 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Rangers | L 4–5 | 45% | −45 | SO |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Canucks | W 5–2 | 77% | +23 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 3–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ Kraken | L 1–4 | 75% | −75 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 6–3 | 49% | +51 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Flames | L 1–5 | 45% | −45 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 5–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 5–2 | 77% | +23 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | L 1–2 | 57% | −57 | OT |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 2–7 | 36% | −36 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 1–5 | 26% | −26 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 2–5 | 42% | −42 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 3–6 | 43% | −43 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Rangers | L 3–6 | 34% | −34 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 2–1 | 35% | +65 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 4–5 | 71% | −71 | OT |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @ Avalanche | W 7–3 | 49% | +51 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vs Islanders | L 0–4 | 60% | −60 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 3–5 | 60% | −60 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 3–6 | 62% | −62 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Kings | L 2–3 | 50% | −50 | OT |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vs Capitals | W 4–2 | 57% | +43 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs Senators | L 1–2 | 39% | −39 | OT |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 1–3 | 42% | −42 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 3–2 | 65% | +35 | OT |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 3–1 | 48% | +52 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 3–2 | 47% | +53 | SO |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vs Mammoth | L 0–3 | 47% | −47 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 4–3 | 38% | +62 | SO |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vs Rangers | L 2–6 | 47% | −47 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs Capitals | W 4–1 | 36% | +64 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Wild | W 3–2 | 31% | +69 | SO |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 1–2 | 45% | −45 | SO |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @ Ducks | W 3–2 | 66% | +34 | OT |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Kings | W 4–3 | 45% | +55 | SO |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 4–1 | 71% | +29 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 2–3 | 56% | −56 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 5–1 | 84% | +16 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 5–3 | 65% | +35 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vs Stars | W 2–1 | 53% | +47 | OT |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 4–6 | 58% | −58 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Red Wings | L 2–4 | 71% | −71 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | @ Islanders | W 4–1 | 49% | +51 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 2–1 | 59% | +41 | OT |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Devils | W 5–1 | 37% | +63 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @ Red Wings | L 3–6 | 58% | −58 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Jets | W 7–1 | 41% | +59 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 3–2 | 68% | +32 | SO |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 4–2 | 36% | +64 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 3–2 | 66% | +34 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 3–0 | 38% | +62 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Penguins | W 5–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 2–4 | 63% | −63 | |
| Apr 27, 2026 | @ Penguins | L 2–3 | 38% | −38 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vs Penguins | W 1–0 | 40% | +60 | OT |
| May 3, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 0–3 | 33% | −33 | |
| May 4, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 34% | −34 | OT |
| May 8, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 1–4 | 25% | −25 | |
| May 9, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 48% | −48 | OT |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Flyers’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shootout | +6.0 |
| Empty-net goals | +1.8 |
| Goaltending | −1.6 |
| Overtime | −2.1 |
| Shooting | −4.3 |