2025-26 season · through Week 9

NHL power rankings, week 10

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.04 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.76), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.60).

Biggest climb since last week: the Ducks, up 5 to No. 16. Biggest drop: the Jets, down 3 to No. 13. The Bruins have 34 points with +7.8 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	21–2–6	48	+1.04	+0.97	+0.08	+3.5
2	–	Lightning	16–10–2	34	+0.76	+0.67	+0.09	−2.8
3	–	Hurricanes	17–9–2	36	+0.60	+0.48	+0.12	+0.4
4	–	Golden Knights	14–6–8	36	+0.52	+0.42	+0.10	+0.2
5	–	Capitals	18–9–3	39	+0.50	+0.45	+0.05	+0.5
6	–	Stars	20–5–5	45	+0.42	+0.35	+0.07	+6.2
7	–	Panthers	14–12–2	30	+0.25	+0.15	+0.10	−2.5
8	▲3	Red Wings	15–11–3	33	+0.19	+0.21	−0.02	0.0
9	▼1	Mammoth	14–13–3	31	+0.19	+0.19	0.00	−2.8
10	▼1	Kings	13–8–7	33	+0.16	+0.12	+0.04	+0.5
11	▲4	Rangers	15–12–4	34	+0.02	+0.03	0.00	+0.5
12	▲1	Penguins	14–7–6	34	+0.02	+0.07	−0.05	+4.0
13	▼3	Jets	14–13–1	29	+0.02	−0.06	+0.08	−0.9
14	–	Islanders	16–11–3	35	0.00	0.00	0.00	+2.9
15	▼3	Devils	16–12–1	33	0.00	−0.05	+0.04	+3.4
16	▲5	Ducks	18–10–1	37	−0.05	+0.07	−0.13	+6.8
17	▼1	Blues	11–12–7	29	−0.10	−0.10	0.00	−2.1
18	▲2	Sabres	11–13–4	26	−0.10	−0.06	−0.04	−2.6
19	▼2	Senators	13–11–4	30	−0.12	−0.12	0.00	+2.3
20	▼2	Flyers	15–9–3	33	−0.13	−0.13	0.00	+5.0
21	▲1	Oilers	13–11–5	31	−0.14	−0.24	+0.10	+3.4
22	▼3	Blue Jackets	13–10–6	32	−0.17	−0.12	−0.05	+2.7
23	–	Wild	15–9–5	35	−0.19	−0.18	−0.02	+4.9
24	▲3	Maple Leafs	13–11–4	30	−0.20	−0.22	+0.03	+2.0
25	▼1	Canadiens	15–10–3	33	−0.20	−0.14	−0.07	+4.8
26	▼1	Kraken	11–9–6	28	−0.27	−0.20	−0.07	+1.8
27	▼1	Flames	11–15–4	26	−0.27	−0.22	−0.06	−3.0
28	–	Bruins	17–13–0	34	−0.41	−0.40	−0.01	+7.8
29	–	Canucks	11–15–3	25	−0.50	−0.48	−0.02	+0.6
30	▲1	Predators	10–14–4	24	−0.51	−0.52	+0.01	+0.6
31	▼1	Blackhawks	12–11–6	30	−0.61	−0.42	−0.19	+2.6
32	–	Sharks	14–13–3	31	−0.72	−0.54	−0.18	+7.6

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 10 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.04 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 21–2–6 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.76) and the Hurricanes (+0.60).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Bruins: 34 points, +7.8 of them luck, ranked 28.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work