2025-26 season · through Week 11

NHL power rankings, week 12

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.17 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.74), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.66).

Biggest climb since last week: the Senators, up 6 to No. 11. Biggest drop: the Jets, down 4 to No. 15. The Ducks have 44 points with +8.3 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Lightning have lost −4.7 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	26–2–7	59	+1.17	+1.09	+0.07	+4.5
2	–	Lightning	19–13–3	41	+0.74	+0.66	+0.08	−4.7
3	–	Hurricanes	22–10–3	47	+0.66	+0.56	+0.11	+2.4
4	–	Golden Knights	16–8–10	42	+0.49	+0.41	+0.09	−0.7
5	–	Capitals	19–12–5	43	+0.37	+0.33	+0.04	−0.6
6	▲1	Stars	25–7–5	55	+0.29	+0.24	+0.06	+9.0
7	▼1	Panthers	19–14–2	40	+0.25	+0.15	+0.10	+0.2
8	–	Kings	15–10–9	39	+0.21	+0.17	+0.04	0.0
9	–	Mammoth	18–17–3	39	+0.20	+0.19	+0.01	−3.9
10	–	Red Wings	21–13–3	45	+0.16	+0.18	−0.02	+3.5
11	▲6	Senators	18–13–4	40	+0.07	+0.07	0.00	+1.7
12	–	Devils	20–15–1	41	+0.05	+0.01	+0.04	+3.5
13	▲2	Wild	22–10–5	49	+0.04	+0.05	−0.01	+7.3
14	–	Penguins	15–11–9	39	−0.03	+0.02	−0.05	+1.1
15	▼4	Jets	15–17–3	33	−0.04	−0.11	+0.07	−3.1
16	▼3	Rangers	18–16–4	40	−0.05	−0.04	−0.01	−0.1
17	▲2	Sabres	17–14–4	38	−0.07	−0.04	−0.04	+1.3
18	–	Flyers	17–10–7	41	−0.11	−0.11	0.00	+5.5
19	▼3	Islanders	19–13–4	42	−0.12	−0.12	0.00	+5.5
20	▲2	Canadiens	19–12–5	43	−0.14	−0.08	−0.06	+5.8
21	▼1	Oilers	18–13–6	42	−0.14	−0.23	+0.08	+5.6
22	▼1	Ducks	21–13–2	44	−0.15	−0.04	−0.11	+8.3
23	▲2	Blues	14–15–8	36	−0.20	−0.20	0.00	−1.4
24	–	Flames	15–17–4	34	−0.24	−0.18	−0.05	−1.7
25	▼2	Maple Leafs	15–15–5	35	−0.27	−0.29	+0.02	+0.7
26	–	Blue Jackets	14–15–6	34	−0.29	−0.24	−0.04	+0.2
27	–	Bruins	20–16–1	41	−0.31	−0.30	−0.01	+6.6
28	▲2	Predators	15–16–4	34	−0.38	−0.39	+0.01	+2.4
29	▼1	Canucks	15–17–3	33	−0.39	−0.37	−0.02	+1.5
30	▼1	Kraken	13–14–6	32	−0.48	−0.42	−0.06	+1.8
31	▲1	Sharks	17–16–3	37	−0.59	−0.43	−0.16	+6.7
32	▼1	Blackhawks	13–16–6	32	−0.71	−0.55	−0.17	+0.5

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 12 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.17 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 26–2–7 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.74) and the Hurricanes (+0.66).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Ducks: 44 points, +8.3 of them luck, ranked 22.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work