2025-26 season · through Week 13

NHL power rankings, week 14

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.24 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.70), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.63).

Biggest climb since last week: the Penguins, up 7 to No. 12. Biggest drop: the Red Wings, down 6 to No. 16. The Sharks have 43 points with +9.0 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Jets have lost −8.2 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	31–3–7	69	+1.24	+1.17	+0.07	+4.9
2	▲1	Lightning	25–13–3	53	+0.70	+0.63	+0.07	−0.5
3	▼1	Hurricanes	25–14–3	53	+0.63	+0.53	+0.10	+1.0
4	–	Golden Knights	17–11–12	46	+0.42	+0.34	+0.07	−3.0
5	–	Capitals	21–15–6	48	+0.32	+0.28	+0.04	−2.0
6	▲1	Panthers	22–16–3	47	+0.26	+0.17	+0.09	+0.8
7	▼1	Stars	25–9–8	58	+0.24	+0.20	+0.04	+6.7
8	–	Mammoth	19–20–3	41	+0.21	+0.20	+0.01	−6.5
9	–	Kings	17–14–9	43	+0.16	+0.12	+0.03	−1.9
10	▲3	Wild	25–10–8	58	+0.08	+0.09	−0.01	+9.0
11	–	Senators	20–15–5	45	+0.05	+0.04	0.00	+1.2
12	▲7	Penguins	20–12–9	49	+0.03	+0.07	−0.04	+4.0
13	▲1	Flyers	21–12–7	49	+0.02	+0.03	−0.01	+4.9
14	▲1	Jets	15–21–4	34	+0.01	−0.06	+0.07	−8.2
15	▲2	Sabres	21–15–4	46	+0.01	+0.04	−0.04	+2.9
16	▼6	Red Wings	24–15–4	52	0.00	+0.01	−0.01	+6.4
17	▼5	Devils	22–18–2	46	−0.01	−0.05	+0.03	+3.6
18	▲2	Canadiens	23–13–6	52	−0.03	+0.02	−0.05	+7.9
19	▼3	Rangers	20–18–5	45	−0.04	−0.04	−0.01	+0.2
20	▼2	Oilers	20–16–6	46	−0.12	−0.20	+0.07	+4.0
21	▲2	Blue Jackets	18–16–7	43	−0.13	−0.09	−0.04	+0.6
22	–	Maple Leafs	19–15–7	45	−0.13	−0.15	+0.02	+2.3
23	▼2	Ducks	21–17–3	45	−0.14	−0.04	−0.10	+4.1
24	–	Islanders	23–15–4	50	−0.22	−0.21	0.00	+8.3
25	–	Blues	17–18–8	42	−0.23	−0.23	+0.01	−0.7
26	–	Flames	18–19–4	40	−0.29	−0.25	−0.05	−0.5
27	▲1	Predators	19–18–4	42	−0.33	−0.34	+0.01	+4.4
28	▼1	Bruins	22–18–2	46	−0.37	−0.36	−0.01	+7.6
29	–	Kraken	18–14–7	43	−0.49	−0.44	−0.05	+6.9
30	–	Canucks	16–20–5	37	−0.53	−0.51	−0.02	+1.1
31	–	Sharks	20–18–3	43	−0.61	−0.46	−0.15	+9.0
32	–	Blackhawks	17–18–7	41	−0.67	−0.53	−0.14	+2.9

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 14 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.24 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 31–3–7 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.70) and the Hurricanes (+0.63).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Sharks: 43 points, +9.0 of them luck, ranked 31.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work