2025-26 season · through Week 16

NHL power rankings, week 17

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.15 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.81), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.73).

Biggest climb since last week: the Flyers, up 3 to No. 16. Biggest drop: the Jets, down 4 to No. 17. The Bruins have 62 points with +12.0 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Capitals have lost −3.5 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	35–6–9	79	+1.15	+1.09	+0.06	+3.3
2	–	Lightning	32–14–4	68	+0.81	+0.75	+0.06	+0.8
3	–	Hurricanes	32–15–5	69	+0.73	+0.66	+0.08	+1.5
4	–	Golden Knights	25–14–12	62	+0.48	+0.42	+0.06	−2.0
5	–	Stars	29–14–9	67	+0.29	+0.26	+0.04	+3.7
6	–	Mammoth	27–20–4	58	+0.25	+0.24	+0.01	−1.3
7	–	Panthers	28–20–3	59	+0.18	+0.11	+0.07	+3.7
8	–	Capitals	25–21–7	57	+0.17	+0.14	+0.03	−3.5
9	–	Kings	21–16–13	55	+0.14	+0.12	+0.03	−1.4
10	–	Senators	24–21–7	55	+0.14	+0.14	0.00	−3.2
11	–	Penguins	26–14–11	63	+0.13	+0.17	−0.04	+3.8
12	▲2	Wild	29–14–10	68	+0.08	+0.09	−0.01	+8.3
13	▼1	Oilers	26–19–8	60	+0.06	0.00	+0.06	+2.5
14	▲1	Sabres	29–17–5	63	+0.03	+0.06	−0.03	+6.4
15	▲1	Red Wings	32–16–5	69	+0.03	+0.04	−0.01	+12.0
16	▲3	Flyers	24–17–9	57	+0.01	+0.01	−0.01	+3.9
17	▼4	Jets	20–24–7	47	+0.01	−0.05	+0.06	−8.2
18	–	Devils	27–23–2	56	−0.01	−0.04	+0.03	+3.9
19	▲1	Blue Jackets	24–20–7	55	−0.03	+0.01	−0.04	+1.5
20	▼3	Canadiens	28–17–7	63	−0.06	−0.02	−0.04	+9.2
21	▲2	Ducks	28–21–3	59	−0.18	−0.10	−0.08	+8.6
22	▼1	Maple Leafs	24–19–9	57	−0.20	−0.23	+0.02	+5.3
23	▼1	Rangers	21–25–6	48	−0.23	−0.23	−0.01	−2.1
24	–	Blues	19–24–9	47	−0.27	−0.28	+0.01	−2.6
25	–	Islanders	27–19–5	59	−0.29	−0.29	0.00	+9.4
26	–	Bruins	30–20–2	62	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01	+12.0
27	▲1	Predators	24–23–4	52	−0.37	−0.38	+0.01	+5.7
28	▲1	Kraken	23–19–9	55	−0.42	−0.38	−0.04	+5.9
29	▼2	Flames	21–25–6	48	−0.44	−0.39	−0.04	−1.0
30	–	Sharks	26–21–3	55	−0.48	−0.35	−0.13	+11.3
31	–	Canucks	17–30–5	39	−0.65	−0.63	−0.02	−4.0
32	–	Blackhawks	21–23–8	50	−0.73	−0.61	−0.12	+4.3

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 17 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.15 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 35–6–9 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.81) and the Hurricanes (+0.73).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Bruins: 62 points, +12.0 of them luck, ranked 26.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work