2025-26 season · through Week 8

NHL power rankings, week 9

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.10 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.76), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.64).

Biggest climb since last week: the Blues, up 5 to No. 16. Biggest drop: the Ducks, down 4 to No. 21. The Bruins have 30 points with +7.5 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Panthers have lost −3.1 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	18–1–6	42	+1.10	+1.01	+0.09	+2.6
2	–	Lightning	16–7–2	34	+0.76	+0.66	+0.10	+0.8
3	–	Hurricanes	16–7–2	34	+0.64	+0.51	+0.14	+1.7
4	–	Golden Knights	11–6–8	30	+0.51	+0.40	+0.11	−1.8
5	–	Capitals	15–9–2	32	+0.47	+0.41	+0.06	−0.6
6	–	Stars	17–5–4	38	+0.46	+0.38	+0.08	+4.1
7	–	Panthers	12–11–1	25	+0.33	+0.21	+0.11	−3.1
8	▲1	Mammoth	12–11–3	27	+0.21	+0.20	+0.01	−2.2
9	▼1	Kings	12–6–7	31	+0.20	+0.15	+0.05	+1.8
10	▲2	Jets	13–11–0	26	+0.18	+0.09	+0.09	−1.1
11	–	Red Wings	13–11–2	28	+0.17	+0.19	−0.02	−1.3
12	▼2	Devils	16–8–1	33	+0.08	+0.04	+0.04	+6.0
13	–	Penguins	12–7–5	29	−0.03	+0.03	−0.06	+2.3
14	▲4	Islanders	13–10–3	29	−0.05	−0.05	−0.01	+1.1
15	▼1	Rangers	13–12–2	28	−0.09	−0.08	−0.01	−0.4
16	▲5	Blues	9–10–7	25	−0.11	−0.12	+0.01	−1.6
17	▼1	Senators	12–9–4	28	−0.11	−0.12	+0.01	+3.0
18	▼3	Flyers	14–7–3	31	−0.11	−0.11	0.00	+5.8
19	–	Blue Jackets	11–9–5	27	−0.12	−0.06	−0.06	+0.8
20	▲3	Sabres	10–11–4	24	−0.13	−0.08	−0.05	−1.3
21	▼4	Ducks	15–9–1	31	−0.17	−0.03	−0.14	+5.6
22	▼2	Oilers	11–10–5	27	−0.17	−0.28	+0.11	+3.7
23	▼1	Wild	14–7–5	33	−0.18	−0.16	−0.02	+5.7
24	–	Canadiens	13–8–3	29	−0.22	−0.15	−0.08	+5.2
25	▲1	Kraken	11–7–6	28	−0.29	−0.21	−0.08	+3.6
26	▲2	Flames	9–14–4	22	−0.29	−0.23	−0.06	−3.4
27	▼2	Maple Leafs	11–11–3	25	−0.30	−0.32	+0.02	+1.0
28	▼1	Bruins	15–12–0	30	−0.47	−0.46	−0.02	+7.5
29	▲1	Canucks	10–13–3	23	−0.49	−0.47	−0.02	+0.9
30	▲1	Blackhawks	11–9–5	27	−0.49	−0.28	−0.22	+2.0
31	▼2	Predators	8–13–4	20	−0.52	−0.52	0.00	−0.5
32	–	Sharks	12–11–3	27	−0.79	−0.58	−0.21	+7.0

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 9 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.10 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 18–1–6 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.76) and the Hurricanes (+0.64).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Bruins: 30 points, +7.5 of them luck, ranked 28.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work