2025-26 season · through Week 25

NHL power rankings, week 26

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.00 goals, the Hurricanes No. 2 (+0.81), the Lightning No. 3 (+0.71).

Biggest climb since last week: the Oilers, up 6 to No. 9. Biggest drop: the Panthers, down 6 to No. 20. The Bruins have 92 points with +18.6 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Golden Knights have lost −9.7 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	48–14–10	106	+1.00	+0.95	+0.04	+4.3
2	–	Hurricanes	46–21–6	98	+0.81	+0.76	+0.06	+1.7
3	–	Lightning	46–21–6	98	+0.71	+0.67	+0.04	+1.6
4	–	Stars	44–18–12	100	+0.46	+0.42	+0.03	+6.6
5	–	Golden Knights	32–26–16	80	+0.43	+0.39	+0.04	−9.7
6	–	Senators	38–25–10	86	+0.37	+0.36	0.00	−0.9
7	–	Mammoth	38–30–6	82	+0.24	+0.23	+0.01	−2.7
8	▲1	Kings	29–26–18	76	+0.14	+0.12	+0.02	−4.9
9	▲6	Oilers	37–28–9	83	+0.14	+0.10	+0.05	+0.7
10	▲2	Penguins	36–21–16	88	+0.13	+0.16	−0.02	+5.0
11	▼1	Sabres	45–21–8	98	+0.13	+0.15	−0.02	+13.0
12	▼4	Capitals	37–28–9	83	+0.12	+0.10	+0.02	+0.8
13	–	Wild	41–21–12	94	+0.11	+0.12	−0.01	+10.9
14	▲3	Devils	38–33–2	78	+0.10	+0.08	+0.02	+0.8
15	▼4	Blue Jackets	38–24–12	88	+0.07	+0.10	−0.03	+5.3
16	–	Red Wings	39–26–8	86	+0.06	+0.06	0.00	+8.1
17	▲2	Flyers	37–24–12	86	+0.05	+0.05	−0.01	+8.0
18	–	Jets	31–30–12	74	+0.03	−0.01	+0.04	−5.3
19	▲1	Canadiens	42–21–10	94	+0.02	+0.05	−0.03	+16.1
20	▼6	Panthers	35–35–3	73	0.00	−0.05	+0.05	−2.2
21	–	Ducks	41–28–4	86	−0.17	−0.12	−0.06	+13.6
22	–	Blues	31–30–11	73	−0.22	−0.22	+0.01	+2.1
23	▲2	Islanders	42–27–5	89	−0.26	−0.25	−0.01	+16.0
24	▼1	Bruins	42–24–8	92	−0.28	−0.27	−0.01	+18.6
25	▲1	Rangers	30–35–9	69	−0.33	−0.33	−0.01	−1.7
26	▲1	Maple Leafs	31–30–13	75	−0.39	−0.40	+0.02	+7.0
27	▼3	Predators	34–31–9	77	−0.39	−0.39	0.00	+8.1
28	–	Kraken	32–29–11	75	−0.41	−0.39	−0.03	+7.0
29	–	Flames	31–34–8	70	−0.49	−0.46	−0.03	+2.9
30	–	Sharks	33–31–7	73	−0.50	−0.41	−0.10	+10.1
31	–	Blackhawks	27–34–13	67	−0.84	−0.75	−0.09	+5.4
32	–	Canucks	21–43–8	50	−0.84	−0.82	−0.01	−5.6

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 26 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.00 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 48–14–10 record. Next: the Hurricanes (+0.81) and the Lightning (+0.71).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Bruins: 92 points, +18.6 of them luck, ranked 24.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work