2025-26 season · through Week 4
NHL power rankings, week 5
All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +0.89 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.54), the Golden Knights No. 3 (+0.49).
Biggest climb since last week: the Rangers, up 8 to No. 10. Biggest drop: the Kraken, down 5 to No. 20. The Canadiens have 18 points with +4.4 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The same ratings make our predictions.
| # | Team | Record | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Avalanche | 7–1–5 | 19 | +0.89 |
| 2 |  Lightning | 6–4–2 | 14 | +0.54 |
| 3 |  Golden Knights | 6–2–3 | 15 | +0.49 |
| 4 |  Panthers | 6–5–1 | 13 | +0.43 |
| 5 |  Hurricanes | 7–4–0 | 14 | +0.40 |
| 6 |  Stars | 6–3–3 | 15 | +0.33 |
| 7 |  Capitals | 6–5–1 | 13 | +0.30 |
| 8 |  Mammoth | 8–4–0 | 16 | +0.22 |
| 9 |  Red Wings | 9–4–0 | 18 | +0.21 |
| 10 |  Rangers | 6–5–2 | 14 | +0.19 |
| 11 |  Jets | 9–3–0 | 18 | +0.16 |
| 12 |  Devils | 9–4–0 | 18 | +0.16 |
| 13 |  Maple Leafs | 6–5–1 | 13 | +0.11 |
| 14 |  Oilers | 6–4–3 | 15 | +0.10 |
| 15 |  Penguins | 8–3–2 | 18 | 0.00 |
| 16 |  Kings | 5–4–4 | 14 | −0.03 |
| 17 |  Canadiens | 9–3–0 | 18 | −0.03 |
| 18 |  Blues | 3–7–2 | 8 | −0.05 |
| 19 |  Sabres | 5–4–3 | 13 | −0.05 |
| 20 |  Kraken | 5–2–4 | 14 | −0.07 |
| 21 |  Flyers | 6–5–1 | 13 | −0.11 |
| 22 |  Ducks | 7–3–1 | 15 | −0.14 |
| 23 |  Islanders | 6–5–1 | 13 | −0.14 |
| 24 |  Senators | 6–5–2 | 14 | −0.18 |
| 25 |  Blue Jackets | 7–5–0 | 14 | −0.21 |
| 26 |  Wild | 4–6–3 | 11 | −0.31 |
| 27 |  Bruins | 7–7–0 | 14 | −0.40 |
| 28 |  Flames | 3–9–2 | 8 | −0.41 |
| 29 |  Canucks | 6–7–0 | 12 | −0.51 |
| 30 |  Predators | 5–6–2 | 12 | −0.51 |
| 31 |  Blackhawks | 5–4–3 | 13 | −0.63 |
| 32 |  Sharks | 4–6–3 | 11 | −0.75 |
Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.
Questions
Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 5 of 2025-26?
The Colorado Avalanche, rated +0.89 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 7–1–5 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.54) and the Golden Knights (+0.49).
How are these power rankings made?
From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.
Why is a team with more points ranked lower?
Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Canadiens: 18 points, +4.4 of them luck, ranked 17.
Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1
Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work